<正>本文采用时变自回归模型结合激励函数来模拟森林火灾发生的状态;采用上下边缘包络线模型来模拟森林火灾发生的整体变化范围;采用灰色拓扑模型模拟森林火灾发生值在哪些年出现,结果表明,拟合及预测效果良好。

This paper deal with the dynamic model and prediction method under the condition of instable sequence, and the original data of forest fire from 1950-1984 of Guangxi were used. The auther combined the time-vary, self regression model with stimulus function to analogue the occurence of forest fire; the co-and low-boundary envelop curve model were used to analogue the variation range of diastor sequence and the grey topological model to the fire occuring value that the years had happened. By the fitting check and forecaeting to the degree, range, diaster frequency of this province in 1985-1987, the good result of fitting and forecasting was obtained and this model and method provided by the author also proved practically suitable.