南京林业大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 1995, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (03): 53-64.doi: 10.3969/j.jssn.1000-2006.1995.03.011

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

2010年中国木材供给和需求的灰色模型动态预测与分析

张智光,唐文彬   

  1. 南京林业大学经济管理学院
  • 出版日期:1995-09-18 发布日期:1995-06-18

DYNAMIC FORECASTING FOR CHINA’S TIMBER SUPPLY AND DEMAND TILL 2010 BY GREY MODEL AND ITS ANALYSIS

Zhang Zhiguang; Tang Wenbin   

  1. College of Economics and Manasement Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing 210037
  • Online:1995-09-18 Published:1995-06-18

摘要: <正>根据中国木材供需问题的具体特点,选用灰色预测模型,建立了中国木材产量、进口量、出口量、节约代用量、供给和需求量的GM(1,1)系列模型,并作出了直到2010年的动态预测。据此,对中国木材供需问题及其对策进行了分析。从预测和分析结果来看,灰色预测模型不仅满足了预测精度,而且能较好地与实际情况相吻合。

Abstract: According to the concrete characteristics of timber supply and demand in China, a grey forecasting model is selected, and a set of GM(1, 1 ) models are built for China’s timber production, import, export, saving and substitution, supply and demand. Then dynamic forecasts are made till2010. On these grounds, the problems of China’s timber supply and demand are analysed and theircountermeasures are suggested. Results show that the grey forecasting model not only ensures the forecasting precision demand but also complies better with practical situation.