<正>对皖东南低山丘陵地区１２个国有林场杉木人工林进行调查，用层次分析法对立地质量进行数量化评定，评定的结果与实际情况吻合；分析杉木各生长因子和产量之间的关系，用ＳＡＳ软件建立了蓄积、树高、胸径的数学预测模型，所建的模型把年龄、林分密度和立地指数有机结合起来，为该地区杉木人工林生长预测和产量预测提供可靠的依据。

12 national forestry farm’s Chinese fir manmade forest of low mountain and hilly land in the southeast of Anhui province is investigated. Site quality is quantitatively evaluated by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the quantitative results coincide with the actual conditions. Having analysed the relation of site factors and yield, every mathematical prediction models of standing stock, stand height and breast—height diameter are established through SAS software and the models combined organically with stand age,stand density and site index in order to provide the reliable guide of the region’s site quality quantitative evaluation and yield prediction.