<正>采用种群生存力分析（ＰＶＡ） 软件———漩涡软件（ｖｏｒｔｅｘ ｖ６ ．３） ，用４ 种不同的初始参数模拟了冶勒地区大熊猫在１００ ａ 内的变动趋势。模拟结果显示：在不考虑灾变和近亲抑制的理想状态下，种群数量有一个缓慢增长；当加入很小的近亲繁殖参数时，种群在第９０ 年绝灭，而加入１７６ ％ 的灾变机率时，种群在第６０ 年绝灭。

Small populations are subject to large fluctuations arising from random processes at a variety of levels (genetic,demogeaphic,environmental and catastrophic),and such variation can place a population at high risk of extinction.Because giant panda is a long term studied animal,many parameters which PVA computer simulation model need can be estimated.We used Vortex computer model made by R.Lacy (vortex 6.3)with four kinds of different parameters to project the likely rate of current Yele panda population.The results show that the number of the panda will slowly increase with no inbreeding depression and no catastrophe,however when we run the computer with a very small inbreeding rate or 1.76% probability of catastrophe the population will be extinct in ninety years and sixty years respectively.