<正>利用1985,1995和2000年LandsatTM数据和相关统计资料,分析了长江三角洲近15年来土地利用变化及驱动因子。结果表明:(1)近15年来长江三角洲主要土地利用类型的变化表现为耕地数量持续减少,建设用地和池塘快速增加,林地呈先增加后减少的波动趋势;(2)土地利用变化的区域差异明显,就耕地的变化而言,土地利用动态度最大相差30倍以上;(3)建设用地重心的转移幅度明显大于耕地重心的转移辐度;(4)土地利用变化与社会经济驱动因子之间的关系可以用3对典型相关变量表示,耕地、建设用地、林地和草地变化分别对应于不同的社会经济驱动因子。

Based on the Landsat TM data(1985,1995 and 2000) and other correlative statistic data,the paper focuses on the research of the land use change and driving forces in the Yangtze River Delta during the past 15 years.Conclusions are drawn as follows:(1)It is the tendency of land use change in the Yangtze River Delta during the past 15 years that the amount of arable land is decreasing,construction land and ponds are rapidly increasing,forest land shows a fluctuating tendency that its amount was increased in 1985～1995,followed by decrease in 1995～2000.(2)There are heavy differences of land use change among the regions of the Yangtze River Delta.As far as arable land is concerned,there is 30 times or more difference of the dynamic degree of arable land among the regions of the Yangtze River Delta.Those regions that have higher economic level from Zhejiang to Shanghai and from Shanghai to Hangzhou have larger dynamic degree of arable land.Those regions located in the north of Yangtze River and main lower mountain and hill in the northwest of Zhejiang province have lower economic level and their dynamic degree of arable land is smaller.((3)The) range of barycenter transfer of construction land is larger than barycenter transfer of arable land during the past 15 years.As a whole,the barycenter transfer of construction land is northeast,but the barycenter transfer of arable land shows the to-and-fro trends that barycenter transfer of arable land is northwest in 1985～1995,but southeast in 1995～2000.(4)Three canonical variables a show a relationship between land use change and social economic driving factors.The change of arable land,construction land,forest land and grass land corresponds to different social economic driving forces respectively.The result can provide important evidence for the forecast of land use change and sustainable using of land resource.