土地利用变化模拟是土地利用研究的重要方法，生态环境保护是土地利用的重要约束条件。笔者通过建立多因素综合判别模型，分析并量化土地利用变化的生态环境约束，以此作为SLEUTH模型的限制因素层控制城市扩展和土地利用变化，从而实现了土地利用变化模型与生态环境分析的松散耦合，有效模拟生态环境保护下的城市扩展和土地利用变化。将该模型应用于滇池流域，对比分析2005年土地利用模拟结果与实际情况，结果表明，现行土地利用规划体现了生态环境保护原则，但仍存在不合理的土地利用布局。
Abstract
Land use simulation is an important methodology to study land use change. Ecological environment protection is a major constraint of land use. In this paper, we built a multifactor comprehensive decision model to analysis ecological environment. The result was imported into SLEUTH model to constrain land use change, therefore, realized a loose couple of urban growth model and ecological environment analysis and successfully simulated urban expansion on the condition of effective ecological environment protection. The model was adopted to simulate landuse in Dianchi basin. The simulated result and the actual landuse in 2005 were compared. It indicated that current land use plan had taken ecological environment protection into account, although unreasonable land use still remained. The simulated result proposed a relatively new foundation to evaluate the existing land use situation and assisted future land use planning.
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基金
收稿日期：2009-03-07修回日期：2009-06-26基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40101117,J0630535)；教育部博士点基金项目(20070284001)作者简介：谭露(1985—)，硕士生。*李满春(通讯作者)：教授，研究方向为基于GIS的土地利用规划。Email: manchun@nju.edu.cn。引文格式：谭露,李满春,刘永学,等. 生态环境保护约束下的土地利用变化模拟——以昆明市滇池流域为例[J]. 南京林业大学学报:自然科学版,2009,33(5):60-64.
