基于Maxent模型的细梢小卷蛾云南潜在分布区预测

李勤文; 李永和; 刘建宏; 杨松; 马明友; 佘光辉

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2013.06.008

李勤文,李永和,刘建宏,杨松,马明友,佘光辉

南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2013, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (06) : 37-40.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2013, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (06) : 37-40. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2013.06.008

研究论文

基于Maxent模型的细梢小卷蛾云南潜在分布区预测

李勤文^1,2,李永和²,刘建宏²,杨松²,马明友³,佘光辉^1*

作者信息 +

Prediction of potential distribution of Rhyacionia leptotubula based on Maxent ecological niche model in Yunnan province

LI Qinwen^1,2,LI Yonghe²,LIU Jianhong²,YANG Song²,MA Mingyou³,SHE Guanghui^1*

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摘要

利用连续2 a对滇东北177块样地的实地调查数据,结合当地海拔、气温及降雨等环境因子,通过Maxent模型预测了细梢小卷蛾的潜在适生区。预测结果显示,细梢小卷蛾在滇东北、滇西北具有广泛的适生区。ROC评价结果表明,Maxent模型预测细梢小卷蛾潜在分布的训练数据和测试数据的AUC值分别为0.998和0.997,达到了极高的精度。各环境变量重要性的刀切法检验表明,海拔在决定细梢小卷蛾的潜在分布中具有重要作用。

Abstract

Distributional data of Rhyacionia leptotubula were derived from wide field surveys of 177 sample sites in Northeastern Yunnan in two consecutive years. Ecological niche modelling technique, Maxent was used to predict potential distribution of Rhyacionia leptotubula based on associations between known occurrence records and a set of environmental variables. The results showed that the suitable areas for Rhyacionia leptotubula infestations covered northeastern Yunnan, northwestern Yunnan, south Sichuan, northwestern Guizhou province. The fit for the model measured by AUC was high, with value of 0.998 for the training data and 0.997 for the test data, indicating the high level of discriminatory power for the Maxent. A jackknife test in Maxent indicated that altitude with the highest gain value was the most important environmental variable.

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李勤文,李永和,刘建宏,杨松,马明友,佘光辉. 基于Maxent模型的细梢小卷蛾云南潜在分布区预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）. 2013, 37(06): 37-40 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2013.06.008

LI Qinwen,LI Yonghe,LIU Jianhong,YANG Song,MA Mingyou,SHE Guanghui. Prediction of potential distribution of Rhyacionia leptotubula based on Maxent ecological niche model in Yunnan province[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2013, 37(06): 37-40 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2013.06.008

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基金

收稿日期:2013-02-20 修回日期:2013-06-20
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(30960316); 云南省重点学科"森林保护学"建设项目(XKZ200905); 西南林业大学重点基金项目(110931)
第一作者:李勤文,讲师,博士生。*通信作者:佘光辉,教授。E-mail:ghshe@njfu.edu.cn。
引文格式:李勤文,李永和,刘建宏,等. 基于Maxent模型的细梢小卷蛾云南潜在分布区预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报:自然科学版,2013,37(6):37-40.