快速城镇化地区耕地景观生态安全格局演变特征及其驱动机制

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201907047

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 181-188.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201907047

快速城镇化地区耕地景观生态安全格局演变特征及其驱动机制

蔡汉¹(), 朱权¹, 罗云建¹, 马坤²

1.扬州大学园艺与植物保护学院,江苏扬州 225009
2.南京林业大学风景园林学院,江苏南京 210037

收稿日期:2019-07-31 修回日期:2019-10-25 出版日期:2020-10-30 发布日期:2020-11-19
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(31500388);中国城市与区域生态国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLURE 2016-2-3);中国博士后科学基金(2016M601144);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX18_0979)

Evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of cultivated landscape eco-security patterns in rapid urbanization areas

CAI Han¹(), ZHU Quan¹, LUO Yunjian¹, MA Kun²

1. College of Horticulture and Plant Protection, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China
2. College of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China

Received:2019-07-31 Revised:2019-10-25 Online:2020-10-30 Published:2020-11-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】探索快速城镇化地区耕地景观生态安全格局演变特征及其驱动机制新方法和新思路,为实施 “18亿亩耕地红线”保护政策提供科学依据。【方法】以江苏扬州耕地景观为对象,运用Fragstas 4.2软件和ArcGIS 10.2软件模拟计算扬州耕地景观安全格局时空演变特征;基于统计年鉴数据,运用地理探测器筛选出主导影响因素,并结合地理加权回归软件分析出影响因素之间的空间差异。【结果】扬州市耕地景观生态安全以市中心周边地区向西北方向逐年降低;社会经济影响因子解释度明显高于自然影响因子;各个主导社会经济因素对扬州市耕地景观生态安全格局的影响存在显著的空间差异。【结论】通过GIS空间模拟、地理探测器筛选和地理加权回归模型分析相结合的方法,可以科学准确地模拟分析出快速城镇化地区耕地景观生态安全格局时空演变特征及其驱动机制和空间差异。

关键词: 耕地, 景观生态安全, 地理探测器, 地理加权回归模型, 江苏扬州

Abstract:

【Objective】 The aim of this study is to explore new methods and ideas for determining evolution characteristics of cultivated land landscape ecological security patterns and its driving mechanisms in rapid urbanization areas, and to provide a scientific basis for implementing the “1.8 billion mu arable land” protection policy. 【Method】 Considering the cultivated land landscape of Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, as the object, we used Fragstas4.2 software and ArcGIS10.2 software to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the security pattern of the cultivated land landscape in the study area. Based on statistical yearbook data, we used the Geo-detector to screen for the dominant influencing factors and then included the information in the GWR 4.09 software to analyze spatial differences between the influencing factors. 【Result】 The landscape ecological security of cultivated land in Yangzhou City decreased annually from the areas surrounding the city center to the northwest. The explanatory degree of socio-economic impact factors was clearly higher than that of natural impact factors. There were significant spatial differences in the impact of various dominant socio-economic factors on the ecological security pattern of the cultivated land landscape in Yangzhou. 【Conclusion】 Combining the GIS spatial simulation, geo-detector screening, and GWR model analysis, we could scientifically and accurately simulate and analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics, driving mechanisms, and spatial differences in the ecological security pattern of the cultivated land landscape in rapid urbanization areas.

Key words: cultivated land, landscape ecological security, geo-detector, GWR model, Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province

中图分类号:

U412.4

蔡汉,朱权,罗云建,等. 快速城镇化地区耕地景观生态安全格局演变特征及其驱动机制[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2020, 44(5): 181-188.

CAI Han, ZHU Quan, LUO Yunjian, MA Kun. Evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of cultivated landscape eco-security patterns in rapid urbanization areas[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2020, 44(5): 181-188.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201907047.

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景观格局指数 landscape pattern index	平均值 average value			最大差值 max difference	乡镇名称 town name
景观格局指数 landscape pattern index	1998	2008	2018	最大差值 max difference	乡镇名称 town name
斑块密度	0.11	0.14	0.16	0.33	新盛街道
边界密度	0.13	0.16	0.18	0.14	杨庙镇、甘泉街道
面积加权平均形状指数	0.48	0.56	0.59	0.34	甘泉街道
平均斑块分维数	1.04	1.04	1.04	0.03	扬子津街道
景观分离度	0.60	0.60	0.69	0.53	大仪镇、高邮街道
景观脆弱度	0.55	0.60	0.63	0.30	刘集镇、甘泉街道
景观生态安全指数	0.63	0.53	0.41	0.64	高邮街道

类型 type	因子 factor	因子解释度 factor interpretation degree
类型 type	因子 factor	1998	2008	2018
社会经济因子 socio- economic factor	工业企业数量(X₁)	0.544	0.568	0.582
	人口密度(X₂)	0.177	0.179	0.214
	第一产业GDP占比(X₃)	0.594	0.608	0.633
	农民收支水平(X₄)	0.711	0.745	0.772
	农机力水平(X₅)	0.653	0.672	0.689
	单位面积耕地产量(X₆)	0.426	0.431	0.457
	距居民点最近距离(X₇)	0.373	0.386	0.405
	单位面积耕地农药负荷(X₈)	0.152	0.164	0.178
	距道路最近距离(X₉)	0.816	0.852	0.917
	第一产业从业人员(X₁₀)	0.267	0.284	0.309
自然地理因子 physico- geographical factor	距河流最近距离(X₁₁)	0.374	0.378	0.379
	年降雨量(X₁₂)	0.125	0.129	0.132
	地形位指数(X₁₃)	0.076	0.078	0.079

年份 year	回归系数平均值mean value of regression coefficient
年份 year	X₁	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₉
1998	-0.067	-0.082	0.162	0.129	-0.189
2008	-0.082	-0.099	0.172	0.145	-0.209
2018	-0.096	-0.107	0.182	0.150	-0.226

快速城镇化地区耕地景观生态安全格局演变特征及其驱动机制

Evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of cultivated landscape eco-security patterns in rapid urbanization areas

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