江苏省景观生态风险评估及其与城镇化的动态响应

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202008049

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (5): 185-194.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202008049

江苏省景观生态风险评估及其与城镇化的动态响应

马颖忆(), 刘志峰^*()

金陵科技学院建筑工程学院,江苏南京 211169

收稿日期:2020-08-29 接受日期:2020-10-26 出版日期:2021-09-30 发布日期:2021-09-30
通讯作者: 刘志峰
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41701127);金陵科技学院高层次人才科研启动项目(jit-b-201606);江苏省高校哲学社会科学专题研究项目(2018SJA0477)

Assessment of landscape ecological risk and its dynamic response with urbanization development of Jiangsu Province

MA Yingyi(), LIU Zhifeng^*()

School of Architectural Engineering, Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211169, China

Received:2020-08-29 Accepted:2020-10-26 Online:2021-09-30 Published:2021-09-30
Contact: LIU Zhifeng

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】 评估景观生态风险,探明其与城镇化的动态响应,为江苏省科学调控高水平生态环境保护和高质量城镇化发展提供依据。【方法】 选用2010年Landsat TM和2018年Landsat OLI遥感影像数据,借助ENVI 5.3、ArcGIS 10.2软件,通过景观格局指数分析景观格局变化,综合评估景观生态风险并探讨其层级结构特征,定量测度景观生态风险与城镇化两者“增量”的响应类型及相关关系。【结果】 江苏省主要景观为耕地、建设用地和水域,其中耕地是基质景观。在景观格局演变中,耕地的异质性增强,建设用地以外部扩张为主,水域基本不变。景观生态风险提升显著,均值由0.123 6上升至0.149 9,现状景观生态风险TOP3城市为苏州、无锡和常州;景观生态风险自北向南逐渐升高,集聚分布态势和经济指向性趋势明显。景观生态风险与城镇化水平“增量”的耦合度大于0.8,城市建设用地快速扩张对景观生态风险快速上升的贡献度高,正向相关系数高达0.83。【结论】 江苏省景观格局变化显著,景观生态风险与城镇化水平同向提升、高度耦合。动态响应类型包括徐州、宿迁、盐城、淮安和扬州构成的低敏感区、沿江地区和连云港构成的中敏感区、苏州和无锡构成的高敏感区。苏南5市和南通“摊大饼式”土地城镇化发展迅速,经济发展水平高的苏南地区是景观生态高风险区域,土地城镇化会加速生态环境恶化,而人口城镇化会缓冲恶化速度,经济结构的转变影响式微。

关键词: 景观生态风险, 景观格局, 城镇化, 动态响应, 江苏

Abstract:

【Objective】 This paper assessed landscape ecological risk and explored the response with urbanization, aiming to provide the basis for Jiangsu’s scientific regulation and control of high-level ecological environment protection and high-quality development of urbanization. 【Method】 Using remote sensing image data of Landsat TM of 2010 and Landsat OLI of 2018, and with help of ENVI 5.3 and ArcGIS 10.2, we analyzed changes in landscape pattern through landscape pattern indices, made comprehensive assessment of landscape ecological risk and probes into hierarchical structure and its characters, and made quantitative measurement of response type and dependency relationship between increment of both landscape ecological risk and urbanization. 【Result】 Jiangsu’s main landscape types included cultivated land, built-up land and water, with cultivated land as base landscape. In the evolution of landscape pattern, cultivated land’s heterogeneity increases, built-up land was mainly used for external expansion, and water basically remained the same. Landscape ecological risk increased significantly, and average value raised from 0.123 6 to 0.149 9. The TOP 3 cities of current landscape ecological risk were Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou, and the high risk area was located in southern Jiangsu while the low risk area lied in northern Jiangsu. The value of landscape ecological risk increased gradually from northern Jiangsu to southern Jiangsu with the passage of time. There were distinctive characters of agglomeration distribution situation and economic development tendency. Coupling degrees of incremental landscape ecological risk and incremental urbanization level were greater than 0.8. Built-up urban land expansion came up with a great contribution rate to increment of landscape ecological risk. And the correlation coefficient reached 0.83. 【Conclusion】 Jiangsu’s landscape pattern changed significantly. Landscape ecological risk and urbanization level displayed the response pattern of homodromous ascending and their increments were high coupling. Dynamic response types contained low-sensitive region of Xuzhou, Suqian, Huai’an and Yancheng in northern Jiangsu and Yangzhou, mid-sensitive region of area along the Yangtze River and Lianyungang, high-sensitive region of Suzhou and Wuxi. Land urbanization of “spreading out the pies” type developed rapidly in five cities of southern Jiangsu and Nantong City. Southern Jiangsu area of high-level economic development was with high landscape ecological risk. Land urbanization would accelerate ecological environment degradation, while population urbanization could slow down the deterioration rate, and economic restructuring made less disturbance.

Key words: landscape ecological risk, landscape pattern, urbanization, dynamic response, Jiangsu Province

中图分类号:

P901

马颖忆,刘志峰. 江苏省景观生态风险评估及其与城镇化的动态响应[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2021, 45(5): 185-194.

MA Yingyi, LIU Zhifeng. Assessment of landscape ecological risk and its dynamic response with urbanization development of Jiangsu Province[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2021, 45(5): 185-194.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202008049.

图/表 10

表1

图1

表2

江苏省13市整体和主要用地类型的景观指数"

城市 city	年份 year		I_SHD		I_C		耕地 cultivated land						建设用地 built-up land						水域 water
城市 city	年份 year		I_SHD		I_C		I_PD		I_PAF		I_A		I_PD		I_PAF		I_A		I_PD	I_PAF	I_A
南京 Nanjing(NJ)	2010	1.05		68.07		0.39		1.30		97.54		0.33		1.29		94.23		0.78		1.29	93.56
南京 Nanjing(NJ)	2018	1.25		55.15		3.29		1.46		86.36		5.40		1.45		76.63		3.36		1.39	82.65
无锡 Wuxi(WX)	2010	1.27		61.95		0.19		1.29		96.48		0.56		1.31		93.68		0.39		1.32	96.77
无锡 Wuxi(WX)	2018	1.35		53.65		4.33		1.45		80.45		3.88		1.44		82.73		2.28		1.44	91.35
徐州 Xuzhou(XZ)	2010	0.60		81.69		0.06		1.25		98.77		0.22		1.33		94.16		0.30		1.39	88.56
徐州 Xuzhou(XZ)	2018	0.79		71.09		1.25		1.39		93.25		3.58		1.40		76.38		0.92		1.42	80.00
常州 Changzhou(CZ)	2010	1.04		68.25		0.19		1.30		97.20		0.47		1.26		93.72		0.64		1.30	94.10
常州 Changzhou(CZ)	2018	1.14		53.27		3.69		1.42		84.13		5.79		1.44		77.99		3.58		1.42	82.17
苏州 Suzhou(SZ)	2010	1.14		66.25		0.19		1.30		96.63		0.23		1.34		94.35		0.33		1.30	97.67
苏州 Suzhou(SZ)	2018	1.23		58.08		4.29		1.43		80.17		3.15		1.46		83.09		2.32		1.43	93.99
南通 Nantong(NT)	2010	0.72		80.41		0.06		1.27		98.94		0.27		1.34		91.36		0.28		1.35	95.96
南通 Nantong(NT)	2018	0.85		66.68		1.72		1.40		90.87		6.59		1.48		73.60		1.70		1.44	86.64
连云港 Lianyungang(LYG)	2010	0.85		74.66		0.10		1.30		98.47		0.14		1.26		93.30		0.26		1.41	95.68
连云港 Lianyungang(LYG)	2018	0.81		72.30		1.17		1.42		95.52		2.90		1.38		78.93		1.22		1.40	83.49
淮安 Huai’an(HA)	2010	0.91		73.23		0.07		1.30		98.70		0.08		1.21		94.76		0.42		1.33	96.78
淮安 Huai’an(HA)	2018	0.86		72.00		0.92		1.41		95.90		2.54		1.43		73.15		1.27		1.40	92.18
盐城 Yancheng(YC)	2010	0.65		80.79		0.05		1.27		98.99		0.11		1.33		93.05		0.37		1.38	94.04
盐城 Yancheng(YC)	2018	0.75		73.13		1.06		1.42		95.07		4.06		1.46		69.81		1.54		1.44	81.73
扬州 Yangzhou(YZ)	2010	0.72		78.36		0.09		1.28		98.71		0.20		1.21		94.28		0.60		1.28	95.45
扬州 Yangzhou(YZ)	2018	0.98		62.38		1.67		1.42		92.36		5.09		1.45		73.20		2.91		1.40	86.02
镇江 Zhenjiang(ZJ)	2010	0.84		72.53		0.12		1.28		98.22		0.51		1.23		92.22		0.51		1.30	93.15
镇江 Zhenjiang(ZJ)	2018	1.12		59.72		2.25		1.42		88.43		5.25		1.42		76.75		3.12		1.37	82.54
泰州 Taizhou(TZ)	2010	0.73		78.08		0.13		1.26		97.70		0.54		1.25		91.31		0.92		1.39	89.97
泰州 Taizhou(TZ)	2018	0.94		61.42		2.06		1.40		90.19		5.77		1.45		74.03		4.44		1.45	72.56
宿迁 Suqian(SQ)	2010	0.95		72.06		0.08		1.29		98.32		0.13		1.30		93.25		0.27		1.40	97.80
宿迁 Suqian(SQ)	2018	0.85		71.89		0.86		1.41		95.24		2.78		1.42		73.06		0.99		1.44	93.66

表2

表3

图2

表4

图3

表5

地理加权回归(GWR)的相关参数"

参数名称 parameter name	值 value
带宽band width	4 360 242
残差平方和residual squares	0.179 5
残差标准差sigma	0.134 0
赤池信息量准则AICc	-5.763 4
R²	0.870 8
$R Adj 2$	0.844 8

表5

图4

表6

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景观类型 landscape type	年份 year	面积/hm² area	N_f	I_PD	I_LP	I_PAF	I_A
草地 grassland	2010	70 576.38	35 427	0.34	0.03	1.16	95.04
草地 grassland	2018	85 341.28	187 142	1.82	0.00	1.09	69.00
耕地 cultivated land	2010	7 519 326.57	11 341	0.11	50.36	1.35	99.99
耕地 cultivated land	2018	6 726 417.76	197 615	1.92	9.40	1.38	99.92
灌木丛 bushes	2010	237.51	559	0.01	0.00	1.09	71.83
灌木丛 bushes	2018	442.24	1 489	0.01	0.00	1.04	38.01
建设用地 built-up land	2010	898 063.11	24 777	0.24	0.24	1.16	98.64
建设用地 built-up land	2018	1 702 252.16	429 174	4.17	1.20	1.29	99.33
林地 forestland	2010	302 865.48	26 486	0.26	0.33	1.18	98.88
林地 forestland	2018	406 162.24	209 269	2.04	0.42	1.19	96.99
湿地 wetland	2010	61 194.42	876	0.01	0.07	1.15	98.70
湿地 wetland	2018	29 666.72	44 489	0.43	0.00	1.09	76.65
水域 water	2010	1 334 695.68	43 102	0.42	4.08	1.21	99.70
水域 water	2018	1 322 433.12	204 421	1.99	3.90	1.25	99.42
未利用地 unused land	2010	93 729.15	2 667	0.03	0.05	1.13	98.15
未利用地 unused land	2018	7 971.36	12 831	0.12	0.01	1.10	81.44

城市 city	2010年			2018年
城市 city	I_ER	F_IER	排序 sort	I_ER	F_IER	排序 sort
无锡 WX	0.145 4	100	1	0.184 3	100	1
苏州 SZ	0.130 9	64	4	0.180 9	95	2
常州 CZ	0.132 3	67	3	0.171 6	83	3
南通NT	0.122 6	43	8	0.168 2	78	4
镇江 ZJ	0.124 2	47	7	0.161 0	69	5
南京 NJ	0.126 5	53	6	0.158 8	66	6
泰州 TZ	0.134 8	74	2	0.155 1	61	7
徐州 XZ	0.130 6	63	5	0.142 6	44	8
连云港 LYG	0.114 7	24	10	0.136 7	36	9
扬州 YZ	0.117 3	30	9	0.135 4	34	10
盐城 YC	0.111 6	16	11	0.126 1	22	11
宿迁 SQ	0.110 2	13	12	0.116 4	8	12
淮安 HA	0.105 6	1	13	0.110 8	1	13
平均mean	0.123 6			0.149 9

城市 city	D_IER	D_IUR	C	城市 city	D_IER	D_IER	C
南京NJ	0.039 6	0.036 4	0.999 1	淮安HA	0.026 6	0.007 2	0.817 3
无锡WX	0.031 9	0.038 2	0.995 9	盐城YC	0.055 1	0.018 6	0.869 0
徐州XZ	0.031 2	0.013 1	0.912 6	扬州YZ	0.045 0	0.022 0	0.939 6
常州CZ	0.045 8	0.042 5	0.999 3	镇江ZJ	0.055 9	0.042 4	0.990 5
苏州SZ	0.042 4	0.054 6	0.992 0	泰州TZ	0.034 0	0.021 5	0.974 6
南通NT	0.074 3	0.053 2	0.986 2	宿迁SQ	0.025 9	0.008 0	0.848 4
连云港LYG	0.052 2	0.027 3	0.949 7

城市 city	C₁	C₂	截距 intercept
南京NJ	0.827 194	-0.484 744	0.484 109
无锡WX	0.827 304	-0.484 811	0.484 219
徐州XZ	0.826 929	-0.484 874	0.484 006
常州CZ	0.827 268	-0.484 782	0.484 180
苏州SZ	0.827 352	-0.484 847	0.484 271
南通NT	0.827 315	-0.484 957	0.484 307
连云港LYG	0.827 018	-0.485 023	0.484 148
淮安HA	0.827 095	-0.484 893	0.484 127
盐城YC	0.827 161	-0.485 011	0.484 236
扬州YZ	0.827 174	-0.484 877	0.484 170
镇江ZJ	0.827 227	-0.484 805	0.484 165
泰州TZ	0.827 224	-0.484 910	0.484 221
宿迁SQ	0.827 035	-0.484 899	0.484 090
平均mean	0.827 243

江苏省景观生态风险评估及其与城镇化的动态响应

Assessment of landscape ecological risk and its dynamic response with urbanization development of Jiangsu Province

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