【目的】分析并预测未来气候变化对马尾松适宜分布范围,探讨影响马尾松潜在地理分布的主要气候因子,为马尾松潜在分布区种质资源管理和保护提供参考与指导。【方法】以中国数字植物标本馆记录的马尾松分布数据为基础,利用MaxEnt模型及地理信息系统ArcGIS 10.3软件探讨马尾松当前地理分布特征及其潜在分布区,并针对代表性浓度路径(RCP) 2.6及RCP 8.5两种气候情景下未来(2050年和2070年)马尾松适宜分布范围及主要气候因子进行分析。【结果】当前马尾松高适生区覆盖的地区主要分布于秦岭—淮河线以南。浙江、福建、江西、湖北西南部、湖南、重庆、四川东南部、贵州北部、广西中部、广东北部等地区为马尾松主要分布区,海南、云南及台湾等地为零星分布区。在未来气候情景下,马尾松适生区向我国北部地区迁移,包括河南西部、山东半岛、辽东半岛、河北东部、山西南部等地区,而在云南南部零星地区不会再有马尾松自然分布。在未来两种气候情景4个条件中,相同RCP情景下,不同年限各适生区之间的差异并不明显,变化趋势大致相同;但相同年限的不同RCP情景对应的各适生区面积变化存在明显区别,RCP 8.5的影响要高于RCP 2.6。影响马尾松地理分布的主导生物气候变量为年均降水量、最干月降水量及平均气温日较差,且降水较温度的影响更大。【结论】未来气候变化将导致马尾松分布范围进一步扩大,新增分布区主要集中于当前分布区北部。应以当前马尾松适生环境为基础,针对当地气候类型、土壤条件等环境因素合理建立保护区,以便马尾松能够顺利适应新环境。

【Objective】The suitable distribution range of masson pine (Pinus massoniana) was analyzed and predicted considering future climate change, and the main climatic factors affecting the potential geographical distribution are discussed in order to provide a reference and a guidance for the management and protection of germplasm resources in the potential distribution area.【Method】Masson pine distribution data recorded according to the Chinese Virtual Herbarium, a MaxEnt model and geographic information system software ArcGIS 10.3 were used to investigate the current distribution characteristics and potential distribution areas. A suitable distribution range and future changes (until 2050 and 2070) under two climate scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5)] were predicted, and the main climatic factors were analyzed.【Result】At present, the areas covered by masson pine were mainly distributed in the south of the Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River line. Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, southwest of Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, southeast of Sichuan, north of Guizhou, central Guangxi, and northern Guangdong were the main distribution areas, whereas Hainan, Yunnan and Taiwan of China were scattered distribution areas. In the future climate scenario, the adaptive area of masson pine will move to the northern part of China, including areas in the west of Henan Province, Shandong Peninsula, Liaodong Peninsula, east of Hebei, and south of Shanxi Province, whereas there will be no natural distribution in scattered areas in the south of Yunnan. In two climate scenarios and under the same RCP, the difference between the adaptive areas of different years was not pronounced, and the variation trend was roughly the same. However, there were significant differences in changes of each adaptive area under different RCP scenarios of the same age, and the impact of RCP 8.5 was higher than that of RCP 2.6. The dominant bioclimate variables affecting the geographical distribution of masson pine were average annual precipitation, precipitation during the driest months, and average daily temperature ranges, and precipitation exerted stronger effects than temperature.【Conclusion】 Future climate change will lead to a further expansion of masson pine distributions, and the new distribution areas will mainly be in the north of the current distribution area. Based on the current habitat of masson pine, a protection zone should be established reasonably according to the local climate type, soil conditions, and other environmental factors, so that masson pine populations can adapt over time to the new environment.