森林认证对纸和纸浆产品国际贸易的影响效应

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202011021

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 222-230.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202011021

森林认证对纸和纸浆产品国际贸易的影响效应

陈娇娇¹(), 宋维明², 陆文明³, 杨超², 夏恩龙¹^,^*(), 李楠¹

1.国际竹藤中心,北京 100102
2.北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083
3.国际竹藤组织,北京 100102

收稿日期:2020-11-12 接受日期:2021-02-23 出版日期:2022-05-30 发布日期:2022-06-10
通讯作者: 夏恩龙
基金资助:
国际竹藤中心“基本科研业务费专项资金项目”(1632022003);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(BLX201946);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72003013);国家留学基金管理委员会资助2019年国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目(201906510023)

Effects of forest certification on international trade in paper and pulp products

CHEN Jiaojiao¹(), SONG Weiming², LU Wenming³, YANG Chao², XIA Enlong¹^,^*(), LI Nan¹

1. International Center for Bamboo and Rattan, Beijing 100102, China
2. School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
3. International Bamboo and Rattan Organization, Beijing 100102, China

Received:2020-11-12 Accepted:2021-02-23 Online:2022-05-30 Published:2022-06-10
Contact: XIA Enlong

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】研究和实践证明森林认证对林产品贸易有重要的影响,纸和纸浆是林产品的重要组成部分。从全球视角评估森林认证对不同经济体国家的纸和纸浆产品国际贸易的影响效应,为中国森林认证制度、机制和政策的建设提供科学的依据和指导。【方法】将消费者不完全信息条件引入森林认证对不同国家贸易影响的理论框架,并将森林认证纳入扩展的引力模型,以处理引力模型的异方差和零贸易值问题,使用2009—2018年68个国家纸和纸浆产品森林认证数据和双边贸易的数据,从出口国的森林认证出口竞争效应、进口国的贸易壁垒效应、由进出口国森林认证的相互作用所获得的共同语言效应3个方面分解影响效应,并将总样本细分为4个子模型以评估对不同经济体的影响。【结果】森林认证对纸和纸浆产品国际贸易的影响呈现效应不对称。森林认证对纸和纸浆产品具有显著的出口竞争效应,且发展中国家优于发达国家;在与发达国家贸易的过程中,森林认证产生了贸易壁垒效应,且对于发展中国家更明显。森林认证的通用语言效应在发展中国家的双边贸易中并未显现,而在发达国家与发展中国家贸易过程中具有通用语言效应。【结论】对我国纸和纸浆产品乃至其他林产品生产和贸易来说,森林认证是其发展不可回避的环境和资源因素,并且其影响效应呈不断增强的趋势。因此,需要从宏观制度、机制和政策建设的层面,高度关注并切实推进森林认证在国内的发展。

关键词: 森林认证, 纸和纸浆产品, 国际贸易, 效应不对称

Abstract:

【Objective】Research and practice have demonstrated that forest certification has a substantial impact on trade in forest products. Paper and pulp products are an important component of forest products. This paper assessed the impact of forest certification on the international trade in paper and pulp products in different economies from a global perspective, to provide scientific guidance for the construction of China’s forest certification system, mechanism and policy. 【Method】The consumer incomplete information condition was introduced into the theoretical framework of the impact of forest certification on trade for different countries. Forest certification was also incorporated into the extended gravity model. Based on data of the number of forest certifications and the bilateral trade value of paper and pulp products for 68 countries from 2009 to 2018, the impact effect is decomposed from three aspects: export competition effects of forest certification in exporting countries, trade barrier effects in importing countries, and common language effect coming from the interaction of forest certification in importing and exporting countries. The total sample was further subdivided into four sub-models to assess the impact on different economies. 【Result】The effect of forest certification on the international trade in paper and pulp products is asymmetric. Forest certification has a significant export competitive effect on paper and pulp products, which is more pronounced in developing countries than in developed countries. In the process of trade with developed countries, forest certification has a trade barrier effect, which has a stronger influence in developing countries. The common language effect of forest certification does not exist during the trade of developing countries, while it plays a role in trade between developed and developing countries. 【Conclusion】Forest certification is an unavoidable environmental and resource factor in the development of the production and trade of paper and pulp products, as well as the other forest products in China, and its influence is increasing. It is necessary to pay strong attention to and promote the development of forest certification in China at the level of the macro system, mechanism and policy construction.

Key words: forest certification, paper and pulp products, international trade, effect asymmetry

中图分类号:

陈娇娇,宋维明,陆文明,等. 森林认证对纸和纸浆产品国际贸易的影响效应[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2022, 46(3): 222-230.

CHEN Jiaojiao, SONG Weiming, LU Wenming, YANG Chao, XIA Enlong, LI Nan. Effects of forest certification on international trade in paper and pulp products[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2022, 46(3): 222-230.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202011021.

图/表 4

表1

表2

表3

基于8个模型的样本总体回归结果"

变量variable	OLS	FE	RE	PPML	OLS(MR)	FE(MR)	RE(MR)	PPML(MR)
ln F_it	0.79^***	0.04^**	0.14^***	0.89^***	0.80^***	0.05^**	0.13^***	0.84^***
	(0.02)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.00)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.00)
ln F_jt	-0.00^**	0.05^***	0.07^***	0.04^**	0.00^*	0.06^***	0.07^***	-0.01^**
	(0.02)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.00)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.02)	(0.00)
ln F_it×F_jt	-0.08^***	-0.03^***	-0.05^***	-0.10^***	-0.06^***	-0.03^***	-0.04^***	-0.06^***
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.00)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.00)
ln Y_it	1.77^***	-0.30^***	1.32^***	1.71^***	1.61^***	-0.41^***	0.97^***	1.43^***
	(0.03)	(0.08)	(0.06)	(0.00)	(0.03)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.00)
ln Y_jt	0.48^***	1.08^***	0.53^***	0.43^***	0.30^***	0.98^***	0.18^**	0.10^**
	(0.03)	(0.08)	(0.06)	(0.00)	(0.03)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.00)
ln P_it	-0.29^***	-0.93^***	0.22^***	-0.26^***	-0.29^***	-1.03^***	0.14^*	-0.25^***
	(0.02)	(0.19)	(0.06)	(0.00)	(0.02)	(0.20)	(0.06)	(0.00)
ln P_jt	0.81^***	0.20^*	0.66^***	0.85^***	0.83^***	0.12^*	0.58^***	0.92^***
	(0.02)	(0.19)	(0.06)	(0.00)	(0.02)	(0.20)	(0.06)	(0.00)
ln I_it	0.31^***	0.08^**	0.18^***	0.45^***	0.31^***	0.07^**	0.19^***	0.46^***
	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.00)	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.00)
ln I_jt	0.41^***	0.01	0.07^*	0.46^***	0.42^***	0.00	0.08^**	0.46^***
	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.00)	(0.02)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.00)
ln D_ij	-0.81^***	0.00	-1.06^***	-0.76^***	-0.87^***	0.00	-1.11^***	-0.86^***
	(0.02)	(0.00)	(0.14)	(0.00)	(0.03)	(0.00)	(0.14)	(0.00)
ln B_ij	2.01^***	0.00	2.05^***	0.74^***	1.99^***	0.00	1.97^***	0.74^***
	(0.11)	(0.00)	(0.29)	(0.01)	(0.11)	(0.00)	(0.30)	(0.01)
ln L_ij	2.31^***	0.00	2.05^***	2.16^***	2.36^***	0.00	2.10^***	2.24^***
	(0.08)	(0.00)	(0.16)	(0.01)	(0.08)	(0.00)	(0.17)	(0.01)
ln C_ij	0.80^***	0.00	1.33^***	0.69^***	0.83^***	0.00	1.12^***	0.65^***
	(0.13)	(0.00)	(0.24)	(0.01)	(0.13)	(0.00)	(0.26)	(0.01)
ln E_ij	0.77^***	0.16^**	0.64^***	0.73^***	0.74^***	0.21^***	0.67^***	0.65^***
	(0.01)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.00)	(0.01)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.00)
多边阻力 multilateral resistance	否	否	否	否	是	是	是	是

表3

表4

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变量 variable	变量定义 variable definition	变量预期影响方向 expected influence direction of variable	数据来源 data sources
X_ijt	t年出口国i对进口国j林产品出口额		UN Comtrade数据库
Y_it	t年出口国i的GDP	+	世界银行WDI数据库
Y_jt	t年进口国j的GDP	+	世界银行WDI数据库
F_it	t年出口国i的森林认证数量	+/-	FSC、PEFC官网整理
F_jt	t年进口国j的森林认证数量	+/-	FSC、PEFC官网整理
P_it	t年出口国i的人口数量	+	World Bank’s WDI
P_jt	t年进口国j的人口数量	+	World Bank’s WDI
I_it	t年出口国i的基础设施水平	+	World Bank’s WDI
I_jt	t年进口国j的基础设施水平	+	World Bank’s WDI
D_ij	两国的地理距离	-	CEPII数据库
B_ij	虚拟变量,表示两国是否共享边界	+	CEPII数据库
L_ij	虚拟变量,表示两国是否有官方语言	+	CEPII数据库
C_ij	虚拟变量,表示两国是否有殖民关系	+	CEPII数据库
E_ij	两国是否隶属于同一经济一体化区域	+	CEPII数据库

统计量 statistics	X_ijt	Y_it、Y_jt	F_it、F_jt	P_it、P_jt	I_it、I_jt	D_ij	B_ij	L_ij	C_ij	E_ij
平均值mean	0.112	10 300	132.85	80.02	4.60	7 028.28	0.04	0.07	0.01	2.53
标准差SD	1.27	24 900	227.34	225.64	1.18	4 862.28	0.19	0.26	0.12	1.95
最小值min	0	114	0	0.50	0	20.25	0	0	0	1
最大值max	101	205 000	3 011	1 392.73	6.80	19 563.95	1	1	1	7

森林认证对纸和纸浆产品国际贸易的影响效应

Effects of forest certification on international trade in paper and pulp products

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可视化

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Metrics

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模型	ln F_it	ln F_jt	ln F_it×F_jt
DC-DC	0.26^***	-0.09^**	0.03^*
DC-DIC	0.38^***	-0.11^*	0.06^**
DIC-DC	0.28^***	0.08^**	0.07^**
DIC-DIC	0.65^***	0.43^***	-0.27^***