白榆在我国的潜在分布格局及未来变化

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202110031

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3): 103-110.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202110031

白榆在我国的潜在分布格局及未来变化

韩淑敏¹(), 闫伟¹^,^*(), 杨雪栋², 胡博³, 于凤强⁴, 高润红¹

1.内蒙古农业大学林学院,内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
2.内蒙古自治区林业和草原监测规划院,内蒙古呼和浩特 010016
3.内蒙古农业大学沙漠治理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
4.内蒙古鄂尔多斯市林业和草原事业发展中心,内蒙古鄂尔多斯 017000

收稿日期:2021-10-15 修回日期:2022-01-27 出版日期:2023-05-30 发布日期:2023-05-25
通讯作者: 闫伟
基金资助:
内蒙古自然科学基金项目(NDTD2010-10)

Potential distribution patterns and future changes of Ulmus pumila in China based on the MaxEnt model

HAN Shumin¹(), YAN Wei¹^,^*(), YANG Xuedong², HU Bo³, YU Fengqiang⁴, GAO Runhong¹

1. College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Forestry Mycorrhizal Biotechnology, Hohhot 010018, China
2. Inner Mongolia Forestry and Grassland Testing and Planning Institute,Hohhot 010016, China
3. College of Desert Control, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018, China
4. Ordos Forestry and Grassland Enterprise Development Center, Inner Mongolia,Ordos 017000, China

Received:2021-10-15 Revised:2022-01-27 Online:2023-05-30 Published:2023-05-25
Contact: YAN Wei

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】研究影响白榆(Ulmus pumila)在我国分布的气候条件、分布范围及未来变化,为白榆的科学保护和合理开发提供理论依据。【方法】采用MaxEnt和ArcGIS软件对当代、2050s和2070s(RCP2.6和RCP6.0)3个时期气候情景下白榆的潜在分布区进行预测。【结果】MaxEnt模型对白榆潜在分布区的预测具有很高的准确度,其训练集和测试集的AUC值分别为0.921和0.911。其中温度季节性变化(Bio4)、年降水量(Bio12)和降水量季节性变化(Bio15)对白榆的影响贡献率累计高达88.4%。依托气候环境变量,对白榆当前时期潜在分布区进行预测,中适生区主要集中在我国新疆、内蒙古中部、甘肃等西北地区,吉林、辽宁和内蒙古呼伦贝尔市等东北地区有少量分布;高适生区主要集中在我国河北、陕西、山西、山东等华北地区。未来2050s和2070s时期RCP2.6和RCP6.0气候情景下,白榆高适生区面积减小,中低适生区面积增大且会出现新的潜在适生区。【结论】以年为单位的温度和降水是白榆分布的主要因子,当前白榆的适生区主要集中在我国华北、西北和东北地区,未来其分布有向高纬度、高海拔区域迁移的趋势。

关键词: 白榆, 环境因子, MaxEnt模型, 潜在分布

Abstract:

【Objectives】This study investigated the influence of climatic conditions, distribution ranges, and future changes of Ulmus pumila in China to provide a theoretical basis for the scientific protection and rational development of U. pumila.【Method】MaxEnt and ArcGIS software were used here to predict the potential distribution areas of U. pumila under three climate scenarios of the present, 2050s, and 2070s (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0).【Result】This study on the distribution of U. pumila was important to reveal its ecological adaptability. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution areas of U. pumila with a high accuracy, with the AUC values of the training and testing sets being 0.921 and 0.911, respectively. The contribution rates of temperature seasonality change (Bio4), annual precipitation (Bio12) and precipitation seasonality change (Bio15) were all 88.4%. The potential distribution of U. pumila during the current period was predicted based on climate and environmental variables. For this, the middle adaptive areas were concentrated in Xinjiang, central Inner Mongolia, Gansu and other northwest regions of China, with a small distribution being found in Jilin, Liaoning and Hulunbuir of Inner Mongolia. Additionally, highly adaptive areas were mainly concentrated in north China, such as Hebei, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Shandong provinces. With the context of global climate change, under different climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0), the highly adaptive areas of U. pumila decreased, whilst the adaptive areas increased in the middle and lower areas, with an appearance of new potential adaptive areas. 【Conclusion】Annual temperature and precipitation were the main factors affecting the distributions of U. pumila. Currently, the adaptive areas of U. pumila are mainly concentrated within northern, northwestern, and northeastern China. In the future, it is projected to migrate to areas of high latitudes and altitudes.

Key words: Ulmus pumila, environmental factors, MaxEnt model, potential distribution

中图分类号:

S792

韩淑敏,闫伟,杨雪栋,等. 白榆在我国的潜在分布格局及未来变化[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(3): 103-110.

HAN Shumin, YAN Wei, YANG Xuedong, HU Bo, YU Fengqiang, GAO Runhong. Potential distribution patterns and future changes of Ulmus pumila in China based on the MaxEnt model[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2023, 47(3): 103-110.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202110031.

图/表 6

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表1

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时期 period	面积比/% percentage of area				面积/×10⁴ km² area
时期 period	低适生 low suitable	中适生 middle suitable	高适生 high suitable	总和 total	低适生 low suitable	中适生 middle suitable	高适生 high suitable	总和 total
当前current	7.63	10.87	5.16	23.66	73.48	104.68	49.69	227.85
RCP2.6(2050s)	17.68	12.93	0.13	30.74	170.26	124.52	1.25	296.03
RCP2.6(2070s)	20.03	8.54	0	28.57	192.89	82.24	0	275.13
RCP6.0(2050s)	20.03	8.53	0.09	28.65	192.89	82.14	0.87	275.90
RCP6.0(2070s)	19.38	9.58	0.28	29.24	186.63	92.26	2.70	281.59

白榆在我国的潜在分布格局及未来变化

Potential distribution patterns and future changes of Ulmus pumila in China based on the MaxEnt model

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