【目的】 科学评价国有林区发展进程并预测其发展趋势,为指导国有林区持续深化改革,促进区域经济协调发展,维护国家生态安全、国防安全、木材储备安全提供参考依据。【方法】 以黑龙江大兴安岭国有林区为研究对象,基于资源保育、产业发展、企业管理、民生福祉、支撑保障5个系统层,构建转型发展进程评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法对2000—2020年的发展进程进行定量评价,并采用灰色GM(1,1)模型及政策调节法对2021—2025年的转型发展趋势进行拟合及政策干预。【结果】 企业自筹资金、专业技术人员、招商引资、在岗职工年均工资、第三产业产值占比及林地面积是影响研究区发展进程的重要指标。2021—2025年研究区“保生态、保民生”的底线目标得以基本实现,但各系统层发展趋势尚不协调,产业发展、企业管理、支撑保障系统层发展明显滞后。研究区发展严重依赖政策红利,内生动力亟待提升;发展中还面临诸多不确定性因素,“十四五”期间林区发展趋势不容乐观。【结论】 在巩固生态环境和民生福祉的基础上,优化产业结构、提升森工企业经营管理效能、夯实支撑保障能力是推进研究区发展进程的重要举措。

【Objective】 A scientific evaluation of the development process and prediction of the development trend of state-owned forest areas would be of great significance. It could provide guidance for the continuous in-depth reform of state-owned forests, promoting the coordinated development of the regional economy, and maintaining ecological security, defense security, and timber reserve security at the national level.【Method】 Taking the state-owned forest region of the Great Khingan Mountains in Heilongjiang Province as the study area, an evaluation index of the transformation and development process was constructed based on the five system layers of resource conservation, industrial development, enterprise management, the welfare of local people, and support security. The entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to quantitatively evaluate the transformation and development process from 2000 to 2020, and the gray GM (1,1) model and policy adjustment method were applied to fit the development trend from 2021 to 2025.【Result】 First, the funds raised by enterprises, professional and technical personnel, attraction of investment, average annual wage of on-the-job employees, proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry, and forest land area were important indicators affecting the development of the research area. Second, the bottom line goal of “protecting ecology and people’s livelihood” was achieved. Third, the development trend of each system level was not coordinated, and there was a clear developmental lag in the progress of industrial development, enterprise management, and support systems. Fourth, the development of the research area was heavily dependent on policy dividends, while the endogenous power and vitality need to be improved. Fifth, the study area faces much uncertainty, and the development trend during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period did not have an optimistic outlook. 【Conclusion】 On the basis of consolidating the natural environment and the well-being of local people, optimizing the industrial structure, improving the management efficiency of forest industry enterprises, and consolidating support and ensuring capability are the key strategic priorities for advancing the development of the research area.