黑龙江大兴安岭国有林区发展进程评价及其政策调节响应

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202302004

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (3): 257-267.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202302004

黑龙江大兴安岭国有林区发展进程评价及其政策调节响应

陈科屹¹(), 何友均¹, 张立文², 才琪³^,^*()

1.中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所,北京 100091
2.大兴安岭林业集团公司,黑龙江大兴安岭 165000
3.中国林业科学研究院生态保护与修复研究所,北京 100091

收稿日期:2023-02-05 修回日期:2023-03-09 出版日期:2024-05-30 发布日期:2024-06-14
通讯作者: *才琪(caiqilinda1010@126.com),助理研究员,博士。
作者简介:陈科屹(lowrychen@sina.com),助理研究员,博士。
基金资助:
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金面上项目(CAFBB2021MC004);国家林业和草原局专项研究项目(500102-1734)

Evaluation of the development process and its policy adjustment respose state-owned forest region in Great Khingan Mountains, Heilongjiang

CHEN Keyi¹(), HE Youjun¹, ZHANG Liwen², CAI Qi³^,^*()

1. Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
2. Daxing’anling Forestry Group Company, Daxing’anling 165000, China
3. Research Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China

Received:2023-02-05 Revised:2023-03-09 Online:2024-05-30 Published:2024-06-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】科学评价国有林区发展进程并预测其发展趋势,为指导国有林区持续深化改革,促进区域经济协调发展,维护国家生态安全、国防安全、木材储备安全提供参考依据。【方法】以黑龙江大兴安岭国有林区为研究对象,基于资源保育、产业发展、企业管理、民生福祉、支撑保障5个系统层,构建转型发展进程评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法对2000—2020年的发展进程进行定量评价,并采用灰色GM(1,1)模型及政策调节法对2021—2025年的转型发展趋势进行拟合及政策干预。【结果】企业自筹资金、专业技术人员、招商引资、在岗职工年均工资、第三产业产值占比及林地面积是影响研究区发展进程的重要指标。2021—2025年研究区“保生态、保民生”的底线目标得以基本实现,但各系统层发展趋势尚不协调,产业发展、企业管理、支撑保障系统层发展明显滞后。研究区发展严重依赖政策红利,内生动力亟待提升;发展中还面临诸多不确定性因素,“十四五”期间林区发展趋势不容乐观。【结论】在巩固生态环境和民生福祉的基础上,优化产业结构、提升森工企业经营管理效能、夯实支撑保障能力是推进研究区发展进程的重要举措。

关键词: 国有林区, 发展进程, 熵权TOPSIS法, GM(1,1)模型, 大兴安岭

Abstract:

【Objective】 A scientific evaluation of the development process and prediction of the development trend of state-owned forest areas would be of great significance. It could provide guidance for the continuous in-depth reform of state-owned forests, promoting the coordinated development of the regional economy, and maintaining ecological security, defense security, and timber reserve security at the national level.【Method】 Taking the state-owned forest region of the Great Khingan Mountains in Heilongjiang Province as the study area, an evaluation index of the transformation and development process was constructed based on the five system layers of resource conservation, industrial development, enterprise management, the welfare of local people, and support security. The entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to quantitatively evaluate the transformation and development process from 2000 to 2020, and the gray GM (1,1) model and policy adjustment method were applied to fit the development trend from 2021 to 2025.【Result】 First, the funds raised by enterprises, professional and technical personnel, attraction of investment, average annual wage of on-the-job employees, proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry, and forest land area were important indicators affecting the development of the research area. Second, the bottom line goal of “protecting ecology and people’s livelihood” was achieved. Third, the development trend of each system level was not coordinated, and there was a clear developmental lag in the progress of industrial development, enterprise management, and support systems. Fourth, the development of the research area was heavily dependent on policy dividends, while the endogenous power and vitality need to be improved. Fifth, the study area faces much uncertainty, and the development trend during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period did not have an optimistic outlook. 【Conclusion】 On the basis of consolidating the natural environment and the well-being of local people, optimizing the industrial structure, improving the management efficiency of forest industry enterprises, and consolidating support and ensuring capability are the key strategic priorities for advancing the development of the research area.

Key words: state-owned forest egion, development process, entropy weight TOPSIS method, GM(1,1) model, Great Khingan Mountains

中图分类号:

F224

陈科屹,何友均,张立文,等. 黑龙江大兴安岭国有林区发展进程评价及其政策调节响应[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 48(3): 257-267.

CHEN Keyi, HE Youjun, ZHANG Liwen, CAI Qi. Evaluation of the development process and its policy adjustment respose state-owned forest region in Great Khingan Mountains, Heilongjiang[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2024, 48(3): 257-267.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202302004.

图/表 9

表1

表2

黑龙江大兴安岭国有林区发展进程综合评价指标体系"

系统层 system level	控制层 control level	指标层 index level	指标性质 index property	子系统权重 subsystem weight	综合权重 comprehensive weight	熵值 entropy
资源保育 resource conservation	森林资源	森林覆盖率	正向	0.144	0.034	0.013
		森林蓄积量	正向	0.138	0.032	0.011
		林地面积	正向	0.170	0.040	0.019
	自然保护地资源	自然保护区面积	正向	0.155	0.037	0.016
		自然公园面积	正向	0.126	0.030	0.018
		国家级自然保护地面积占施业区面积比例	正向	0.102	0.024	0.013
	苗木资源	苗木产量	正向	0.080	0.019	0.007
	苗木资源	育苗面积	正向	0.084	0.020	0.010
产业发展 industrial development	产业实力	林业产业总产值	正向	0.185	0.030	0.011
	产业实力	林业产业增加值	正向	0.176	0.028	0.011
	产业结构	第一产业产值占林业产业总产值比例	负向	0.164	0.026	0.009
		第二产业产值占林业产业总产值比例	负向	0.084	0.014	0.009
		第三产业产值占林业产业总产值比例	正向	0.246	0.040	0.015
		接续替代产业产值占林业总产值比例	正向	0.146	0.023	0.013
企业管理 business management	经营效率	流动资产利润率	正向	0.125	0.033	0.012
		劳动生产率	正向	0.107	0.028	0.014
		企业就业指数	正向	0.077	0.020	0.013
	创新驱动	专业技术人员占在岗职工比例	正向	0.180	0.048	0.021
	创新驱动	林业科技交流与推广服务人员	正向	0.033	0.009	0.005
	交流合作	从业人员流动率	正向	0.077	0.021	0.008
		境外采伐木材	正向	0.053	0.014	0.008
		境外加工板材	正向	0.180	0.048	0.015
		招商引资	正向	0.169	0.045	0.011
民生福祉 well-being of people	工资收入	在岗职工年均工资	正向	0.381	0.042	0.016
	工资收入	离退休人员年均生活费	正向	0.353	0.039	0.016
	基本保险	年末参加基本医疗保险人数比例	正向	0.162	0.018	0.013
	基本保险	年末参加基本养老保险人数比例	正向	0.104	0.012	0.009
支撑保障 support and guarantee	灾害防控	森林火灾受害率	负向	0.023	0.005	0.005
	灾害防控	林业有害生物防治率	正向	0.136	0.031	0.013
	管护人力	森林管护职工占从业人员比例	正向	0.054	0.012	0.005
	管护人力	专业扑火队	正向	0.094	0.021	0.010
	资金投入	林业固定资产投资	正向	0.146	0.033	0.007
	资金投入	企业自筹资金	正向	0.359	0.082	0.017
	基础设施	在册林业公路	正向	0.086	0.020	0.012
		在册桥梁	正向	0.078	0.018	0.013
		在册涵洞	正向	0.025	0.006	0.005

表2

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

表3

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层次 level	评价指数范围 evaluation index range	解释 explanation
E1	0 ≤E_j < 0.2	止步不前
E2	0.2 ≤E_j < 0.4	有所起色
E3	0.4 ≤E_j < 0.6	初见成效
E4	0.6 ≤E_j < 0.8	成效明显
E5	0.8 ≤E_j < 1	良性发展

年份 year	拟合值 fitted value	实际值 actual value	残差 residual	相对误差/% relative error	年份 year	拟合值 fitted value	实际值 actual value	残差 residual	相对误差/% relative error
2000	0.248	0.248	-0.000	0.000	2011	0.421	0.528	0.107	20.177
2001	0.227	0.238	0.011	4.547	2012	0.442	0.607	0.165	27.215
2002	0.246	0.260	0.014	5.429	2013	0.462	0.660	0.198	29.953
2003	0.265	0.236	-0.029	12.181	2014	0.483	0.559	0.076	13.597
2004	0.284	0.241	-0.043	17.746	2015	0.504	0.520	0.016	3.106
2005	0.303	0.289	-0.014	4.827	2016	0.525	0.513	-0.012	2.315
2006	0.322	0.253	-0.069	27.388	2017	0.546	0.514	-0.032	6.242
2007	0.342	0.248	-0.094	37.821	2018	0.567	0.527	-0.040	7.679
2008	0.361	0.302	-0.059	19.690	2019	0.589	0.548	-0.041	7.487
2009	0.381	0.316	-0.065	20.664	2020	0.611	0.480	-0.131	27.245
2010	0.401	0.443	0.042	9.414

黑龙江大兴安岭国有林区发展进程评价及其政策调节响应

Evaluation of the development process and its policy adjustment respose state-owned forest region in Great Khingan Mountains, Heilongjiang

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