
江苏咖啡豹蠹蛾风险分析
巨云为, 朱晨曦, 严晓茹, 章宇, 吴娅莉, 赵玉玲, 王克春, 李永荣
南京林业大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2019, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6) : 207-210.
江苏咖啡豹蠹蛾风险分析
Risk analysis ofZeuzera coffeae Nietner in Jiangsu Province
【目的】对咖啡豹蠹蛾危害薄壳山核桃的风险进行综合分析,确定其危险程度,为咖啡豹蠹蛾的防控提供参考。【方法】于2016—2017年在江苏南京六合、镇江句容薄壳山核桃种植基地各选取4块50 m×50 m样地调查咖啡豹蠹蛾对薄壳山核桃林的危害情况,采用对角线法在每块样地中选取7个样方,用隔行取样法在每个样方选取10株样树,记录每个样方中的样株数、树龄、树高以及受害株数量,统计受害株率。根据林业有害生物风险分析指标体系对咖啡豹蠹蛾的危险程度进行定量分析,并采用综合分析法进行了风险评估。【结果】调查地3年生薄壳山核桃的受害株率为41.43%,4年生受害株率为32.86%,5年生受害株率为22.14%,6年生受害株率为17.86%。咖啡豹蠹蛾危害风险分析指标及运算值为:①分析区域内分布情况,风险值为2.00;②传入、定殖和扩散的可能性,风险值为3.00;③潜在危害性,风险值为1.80;④受害寄主经济重要性(受害对象的重要性),风险值为3.00;⑤危险性管理难度,风险值为1.67。根据各项风险分析指标计算得咖啡豹蠹蛾的风险综合评价(R)值为2.22。【结论】通过对咖啡豹蠹蛾传播、危害及风险性分析,认为该虫是薄壳山核桃高度危险的有害生物。应加强对咖啡豹蠹蛾虫情的监测,发现后及时防控,控制其虫口密度,以降低对薄壳山核桃经济、生态等效益的负面影响。
【Objective】The risk analysis of Carya illinoinensis Koch harmed by Zeuzera coffeae Nietner was conducted to determine the degree of hazard, which provided a reference for the prevention and control of Z. coffeae in the production of C. illinoinensis.【Method】From 2016 to 2017, four sample lands (50 m × 50 m) of C. illinoinensis Koch planting bases in Luhe of Nanjing and Jurong of Zhenjiang of Jiangsu Province, were investigated for the damage caused by Z. coffeae Nietner to the C. illinoinensis Koch forest. Seven sample plots were selected from each sample land by the diagonal method, and ten sample plots from each sample were selected by interlaced sampling. The calculation method of the damaged rate ofC. illinoinensis Koch is the total number of damaged C. illinoinensis Koch divided by the total number of plants investigated. According to the evaluation criteria of forestry pest risk analysis, the risk degree of Z. coffeae was quantitatively analyzed for the first time, and the risk analysis was carried out by a comprehensive analysis method.【Result】The damaged rate of C. illinoinensis Koch was 41.43% for 3-year-old victims; the rate of 4-year-old victims was 32.86%; the rate of 5-year-old victims was 22.14%; the rate of 6-year-old victims was 17.86%. Based on the rules of pest risk analysis, we categorized the risk level of Z. coffeae Nietner using five indexes: the distribution, potential degree of damage, economical value of infected host plants, possibility of transmission and spreading, and difficulty of risk management in Jiangsu. The values of the five indexes were calculated as 2.00, 3.00, 1.80, 3.00 and 1.67, respectively. The overall risk value of Z. coffeae Nietner was 2.22. 【Conclusion】Through the analysis of the spread, harm, and risk of Z. coffeae Nietner, it is considered to be a highly dangerous pest for C. illinoinensis Koch. During production, the monitoring of Z. coffeae Nietner should be strengthened, and timely detection and prevention should be carried out to control the density of this insect population; this will reduce the negative impact on the economic and ecological benefits of C. illinoinensis.
Carya illinoinensis Koch / Zeuzera coffeae Nietner / risk analysis / Jiangsu
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