南京林业大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2011, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (03): 4-.doi: 10.3969/j.jssn.1000-2006.2011.03.005

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于BIOME4模拟未来中国东部南北样带生物群区的分布

董卓瑶1,欧阳琰1*,李航1,王磊2,赵德华1,安树青1,刘世荣3   

  1. 1.南京大学生命科学学院,森林生态与全球变化实验室,江苏南京210093;2.江苏省林业科学研究院,江苏南京211153;3.中国林业科学研究院,森林生态环境与保护研究所,北京100091
  • 出版日期:2011-06-13 发布日期:2011-06-13
  • 基金资助:
    收稿日期:2010-05-10修回日期:2010-11-23基金项目:国家林业局林业公益性行业科研专项(200804001)作者简介:董卓瑶(1985—),硕士生。*欧阳琰(通信作者),博士后。Email: oyy0723@163.com。引文格式:董卓瑶,欧阳琰,李航,等. 基于BIOME4模拟未来中国东部南北样带生物群区的分布[J]. 南京林业大学学报:自然科学版,2011,35(3):21-27.

Modeling the biome of NorthSouth transect of eastern China in the future using BIOME4 model

DONG Zhuoyao1, OUYANG Yan1*, LI Hang1, WANG Lei2, ZHAO Dehua1, AN Shuqing1, LIU Shirong3   

  1. 1.Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Global Changes, School of Life Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;2.Jiangsu Academy of Forestry,Nanjing 211153, China;3.Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China
  • Online:2011-06-13 Published:2011-06-13

摘要: 利用生物地理耦合模型BIOME4,模拟在未来气候情景下中国东部南北样带生物群区的潜在分布。根据中国气候-植被的关系对BIOME4的环境限制因子进行修正,运用经过修正的BIOME4模拟现实与未来生物群区的分布。Kappa检验表明,BIOME4可以较精确地模拟生物群区的分布,其中,热带常绿林、热带落叶林、亚热带混交林、温带落叶阔叶林、冷温带针阔混交林、落叶泰加林和温带草原均得到了较好的模拟;温带针叶林、冷温带针叶林的模拟结果不理想;在SRES-A1B情景下,模拟结果表明热带森林、亚热带森林、温带落叶阔叶林、冷温带针阔混交林、泰加林的分布均发生了明显的北迁;在未来生物群区分布的主要变化区域位于海南沿海,热带和亚热带的交界处,北亚热带和温带大部分地区以及冷温带和寒温带境内大部分地区。热带森林、亚热带混交林、冷温带针阔混交林的面积分别增加了1.167 6×105、5.004 8×105与6.110 0×105 km2;温带落叶阔叶林、温带草原、泰加林的面积分别减少2.089 0×105、2.162 8×105和2.517 0×105 km2;温带针叶林在未来消失。

Abstract: In this paper, a biogeographical modelBIOME4, was used to predict potential vegetation distribution in NorthSouth transect of eastern China under climate change. Firstly, the BIOME4 was validated according to the climatevegetation relationships in China. Kappa statistics showed that the validated BIOME4 was able to capture the geographical patterns of vegetation more accurately. Kappa values of tropical evergreen forest, tropical deciduous forest, warm mixed forest, temperate deciduous forest, cool mixed forest, deciduous taiga and temperate grassland are at good and very good level.The simulation results of temperate conifer forest and cool conifer forest are at poor level. The validated BIOME4 was used to predict the distribution of biome of NorthSouth transect of eastern China under SRESA1B climate scenario produced by a regional circulation model, RegCM3. The simulation results showed obvious northward shifts of the tropical forest,warm temperate forest, cool mixed forest and taiga. In the future, the changed regions of biome distribution are pointed, i.e., coastal areas of Hainan, the junction area of the torrid and subtropical zone, most area of northern subtropical and temperate zone, most area of cool temperate and cold temperate zone. In the future, area of tropical biomes, warm mixed forest, cool mixed forest will increase 1167 6×105, 5004 8×105 and 6110 0×105 km2, respectively; The area of temperate deciduous forest, temperate grassland and taiga will decrease 2089 0×105, 2162 8×105 and 2517 0×105 km2, respectively; temperate conifer forest will disappear.

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