呼伦贝尔市气候变化对森林草原火灾的影响及未来趋势分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201904049

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 222-230.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201904049

呼伦贝尔市气候变化对森林草原火灾的影响及未来趋势分析

张恒¹(), 张秋良¹^,^*(), 岳阳¹^,², 宋希明³, 代海燕⁴, 伊伯乐¹

1.内蒙古农业大学林学院,内蒙古呼和浩特 010019
2.东北林业大学林学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150040
3.内蒙古大兴安岭林业科学技术研究所,内蒙古牙克石 022150
4.内蒙古生态与农业气象中心,内蒙古呼和浩特 010051

收稿日期:2019-04-22 修回日期:2020-04-20 出版日期:2020-10-30 发布日期:2020-10-30
通讯作者: 张秋良
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0504003);国家自然科学基金项目(31860211);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2019M653807XB);内蒙古农业大学高层次人才引进项目(206039);内蒙古农业大学博士后基金项目(108950)

The impact of climate change on forest and grassland fires and future trends in Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia

ZHANG Heng¹(), ZHANG Qiuliang¹^,^*(), YUE Yang¹^,², SONG Ximing³, DAI Haiyan⁴, YI Bole¹

1. College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010019, China
2. College of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
3. Inner Mongolia Daxing’anling Forestry Science and Technology Research Institute,Yakeshi 022150, China;
4. Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center, Hohhot 010051, China

Received:2019-04-22 Revised:2020-04-20 Online:2020-10-30 Published:2020-10-30
Contact: ZHANG Qiuliang

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】气候变暖是引发森林和草原火灾发生次数增加和过火面积扩大的重要因素。呼伦贝尔草原是中国北方地区重要的生态防护屏障,也是目前受气候变化影响最为严重的区域之一。通过研究呼伦贝尔市气候和森林草原火灾的历史变化,计算未来变化趋势以及干旱指数,为该地区应对气象灾害以及森林草原火灾的防御准备工作提供理论依据。【方法】利用重标极差(R/S)分析法、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)分析等方法整理分析内蒙古自治区呼伦贝尔市1961—2018年的气象数据,得出过去及未来变化趋势以及干湿程度。通过分析1990—2018年呼伦贝尔市森林草原火灾数据,将气象要素与干旱状况分别与森林草原火灾数据相结合进行分析,得出火灾未来变化趋势。【结果】 ①1961—2018年内蒙古呼伦贝尔市气温和降水量增加,相对湿度和日照时间下降;气温未来变化趋势将与过去变化趋势相同,降水量、相对湿度、日照时间变化趋势将与过去变化趋势相反;2011年始呼伦贝尔市气候出现持续干旱状况,通过24个月的数据分析得出,未来将会持续保持干旱。②森林火灾的发生频度和过火面积均呈现上升趋势,分别为1次/a和318.38 hm ²/a;草原火灾的发生频度和过火面积均呈现下降趋势,分别为0.41次/a和12 486 hm ²/a。③当植物处于生长季时,草原火灾和森林火灾均与气温呈负相关,与降水量呈正相关,草原火灾与相对湿度和日照时间均呈正相关,森林火灾与相对湿度和日照时间均呈负相关。④森林草原的火灾频度和过火面积与短时间尺度SPEI均有很高的拟合程度,拟合曲线为二次函数。【结论】研究预测,未来呼伦贝尔地区干旱程度将会延续,森林草原火灾的发生与气象因素有很高的拟合度。建议当地有关部门在掌握本地气候变化基础上,制定合理的防护措施。

关键词: 气候变化, 森林草原火灾, R/S分析法, 标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI), 未来趋势, 内蒙古呼伦贝尔

Abstract:

【Objective】Climate warming is an important factor in the increase in number and area of forest and grassland fires. The Hulunbuir Grassland is an important ecological protection barrier in northern China, and occurs in a region significantly affected by climate change. The study of climate change and forest and grassland fires in Hulunbuir City provides a theoretical basis for the region to cope with meteorological disasters and prepare for forest and grassland fire prevention.【Method】Using R/S analysis and SPEI index analysis, meteorological data from 1961-2018 for Hulunbuir City (Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region) were analyzed to determine past and future trends and the degree of dryness and wetness. By analyzing Hulunbuir City forest and grassland fire data from 1990-2018, future fire trends were identified. The results of the analyses (meteorological factors and drought conditions) were combined with the forest and grassland fire data for Hulunbuir City. 【Result】① Between 1961 and 2018, in Hulunbuir City, the temperature and precipitation increased, whereas the relative humidity and number of sunshine hours decreased. Future temperature change trends are likely to reflect the past but trends in precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine hours are likely to be opposite to the past. Drought has continued in Hulunbuir City since 2011 and analysis of 24 of data shows that the drought is most likely to continue in the future. ② The number and burn area of forest fires showed an upward trend, 1 times/a and 318.38 hm ²/a, respectively whereas the number and burn area of grassland fires showed a downward trend, 0.41 time/a and 12 486 hm ²/a, respectively. ③ During the growing season, both forest and grassland fires are negatively correlated with temperature and precipitation. Grassland fires are positively correlated with relative humidity and sunshine hours whereas forest fires are negatively correlated with these two factors. ④ The number and burn area of forest and grassland fires shows a high degree of fit with the segment time scale SPEI, and the fitted curve was a quadratic function. 【Conclusion】This study predicts that the degree of drought in Hulunbuir will continue in the future. The occurrence of forest and grassland fires has a high fit with meteorological factors. It is suggested that the local authorities concerned formulate reasonable protective measures on the basis of understanding local climate change.

Key words: climate change, forest grassland fires, R/S analysis, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), future trend, Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia

中图分类号:

S762

张恒,张秋良,岳阳,等. 呼伦贝尔市气候变化对森林草原火灾的影响及未来趋势分析[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2020, 44(5): 222-230.

ZHANG Heng, ZHANG Qiuliang, YUE Yang, SONG Ximing, DAI Haiyan, YI Bole. The impact of climate change on forest and grassland fires and future trends in Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2020, 44(5): 222-230.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201904049.

图/表 4

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指标 index	森林火灾 forest fires		草原火灾 grassland fires
指标 index	火灾次数 number of fires	过火面积 burned area	火灾次数 number of fires	过火面积 burned area
气温 temperature	6^*、9^、 12^*		7^、8^、 9^**	9^*、12^
降水量 precipitation	2^*、11^	2^、11^*	3^*	8^**
相对湿度 relative humidity	6^、8^、 9^*、10^	5^**	5^、6^、 8^、9^	1^、6^、 8^、9^、 10^、12^
日照时间 sunshine hours	5^**	1^、5^*	3^、5^、 10^*	5^**

呼伦贝尔市气候变化对森林草原火灾的影响及未来趋势分析

The impact of climate change on forest and grassland fires and future trends in Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia

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