基于MaxEnt模型的白鹤越冬栖息地潜在适生区分布研究

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202303053

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (5): 181-188.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202303053

基于MaxEnt模型的白鹤越冬栖息地潜在适生区分布研究

刘小燕¹(), 张增信¹^,^*(), 李军², 陈娟², 华军², 彭冶³, 晏欣¹, 邱健¹

1.南京林业大学水土保持学院、林草学院,南方现代林业协同创新中心,江苏南京 210037
2.徐州市云龙湖风景名胜区管理委员会,江苏徐州 221018
3.南京林业大学生命科学学院,江苏南京 210037

收稿日期:2023-03-31 修回日期:2024-01-13 出版日期:2024-09-30 发布日期:2024-10-03
通讯作者: * 张增信(nfuzhang@163.com),教授。
作者简介:
刘小燕(15070701057@163.com)。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2019YFC0409004);国家自然科学基金项目(41971025);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

An prediction of the potential distribution of suitable habitat for Grus leucogeranus using the MaxEnt model

LIU Xiaoyan¹(), ZHANG Zengxin¹^,^*(), LI Jun², CHEN Juan², HUA Jun², PENG Ye³, YAN Xin¹, QIU Jian¹

1. Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,College of Water and Soil Conservation, College of Forestry and Grassland, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2. Administrative Committee of Yunlong Lake Scenic Area of Xuzhou City, Xuzhou 221018, China
3. College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China

Received:2023-03-31 Revised:2024-01-13 Online:2024-09-30 Published:2024-10-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】近年来白鹤(Grus leucogeranus)的适生区分布因气候变化和人类活动等因素受到了极大影响,故运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模拟白鹤在中国不同时期的适生区分布,以预测不同气候变化情景下白鹤越冬栖息地的潜在适生区变化,为濒临灭绝的水鸟保护提供数据支撑和理论依据。【方法】根据白鹤在中国越冬栖息地适生区的分布变化,基于白鹤在中国区域的分布点位、植被、地形、实测气温、降水以及全球气候模式(GCMs)等数据,分析其适宜生境与各环境因子的关系,利用MaxEnt开展白鹤越冬栖息地潜在适生区预测研究。【结果】①MaxEnt模型在研究白鹤越冬栖息地适生区分布和气候适宜性方面具有较高的适用性,其中海拔、最湿月降水量、坡度和归一化植被指数(NDVI)是影响白鹤适生区分布的主要环境因素。②白鹤的适生区主要分布在长江中下游地区,其中鄱阳湖流域是最主要的高适生区,而中、低适生区也主要围绕鄱阳湖周边分布。此外,长江中下游干流区、渤海湾沿岸、海河、辽河以及嫩江和松花江流域等地也有低适生区分布。③全球气候模式预测结果显示,在未来20年,白鹤越冬区低适生区面积呈上升趋势,但中、高适生区面积普遍下降。其中,中适生区面积将收缩2 500~25 700 km²,高适生区面积将收缩3 800~12 200 km²。【结论】不同温室气体排放情景对珍稀物种白鹤分布产生的影响有所差异。在全球气候变暖背景下,白鹤越冬栖息地中、高适生区面积可能会出现明显萎缩,对白鹤的保护带来严峻挑战,应加强气候变化背景下白鹤栖息地的研究,为白鹤保护和栖息地管理提供数据支撑。

关键词: 白鹤, 适生区分布, 气候情景, MaxEnt模型, 栖息地, 中国

Abstract:

【Objective】The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin are the most important wintering habitats for the Grus leucogeranus. However, in recent years, the distribution of suitable habitats for the G. leucogeranus in this area has been greatly altered by the combined effects of climate change and various other factors. Therefore, conducting research on the habitat suitability of G. leucogeranus in this area is of great significance for the protection and scientific management of this endangered species.【Method】In this study, based on the changes in the distribution of suitable areas of the G. leucogeranus wintering habitat in China, we used the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to predict the potential suitable areas of the G. leucogeranus wintering habitat. The prediction was based on the G. leucogeranus distribution points, vegetation, topography, observed air temperature, precipitation, Global Climate Models (GCMs) data, and other various environmental factors.【Result】(1) The MaxEnt model proved highly effective in predicting the distribution of suitable habitats and assessing climate suitability for G. leucogeranus in their wintering grounds, with an AUC value of 0.978. The most influential environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitat for G. leucogeranus were elevation, precipitation during the wettest month, slope, and NDVI. (2) The contemporary suitable habitat of the G. leucogeranus mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with the the Poyang Lake being the most important high suitable area for the species. The medium and low suitable areas also mainly distributed around the the Poyang Lake. In addition, low suitable areas were found in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, along the coast of the Bohai Bay, and in the Haihe River, the Liaohe River, the Nenjiang, and the Songhua River basins. (3) Global climate model prediction results showed predictions indicate that the next 20 years, although the low suitable areas for G. leucogeranus during wintering is on the rise, the medium and high suitable areas generally decreasing. Among them, compared to the contemporary period, the medium suitable living area are projected to shrink by 2 500 to 25 700 km², and the high suitable living area will shrink by 3 800 to 12 200 km².【Conclusion】Different greenhouse gas emission scenarios will have different varying impacts on the distribution of G. leucogeranus. In the context of global warming, the wintering habitat of G. leucogeranus may shrink significantly, which will pose a serious challenge to the conservation of this rare species, and we should strengthen the research on G. leucogeranus habitat in the context of climate change, to provide data support for the conservation of G. leucogeranus and the management of their habitats.

Key words: Grus leucogeranus, suitable habitat distribution, climate scenario, MaxEnt model, habitat, China

中图分类号:

S718

刘小燕,张增信,李军,等. 基于MaxEnt模型的白鹤越冬栖息地潜在适生区分布研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 48(5): 181-188.

LIU Xiaoyan, ZHANG Zengxin, LI Jun, CHEN Juan, HUA Jun, PENG Ye, YAN Xin, QIU Jian. An prediction of the potential distribution of suitable habitat for Grus leucogeranus using the MaxEnt model[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2024, 48(5): 181-188.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202303053.

图/表 7

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变量代码 variable code	描述 description	贡献率/% contribution rate	排列重要值/% permutation importance
alt	海拔,m	43.9	71.8
bio_13	最湿月份降水量,mm	19.0	9.1
slo	坡度,%	10.1	1.4
NDVI	归一化植被指数	9.2	5.6
bio_18	最暖月平均降水量,mm	7.0	2.3
bio_3	昼夜温差与年温差比,℃	4.6	3.8
bio_4	温度变化方差,℃	3.1	2.9
bio_15	降水量变化方差,mm	2.3	2.6
bio_5	最热月份最高气温,℃	0.4	0.1
asp	坡度,(°)	0.3	0.4

时间 time	CMIP 6模式	气候情景 climate scenarios	面积/km² area
时间 time	CMIP 6模式	气候情景 climate scenarios	总适生区 total suitable area	高适生区 high suitable area	中适生区 medium suitable area	低适生区 low suitable area
1970—2000			466 200	34 300	77 200	354 700
		SSP1-2.6	544 100	27 700	63 100	453 200
	BCC-CSM2-MR	SSP2-4.5	578 400	30 500	84 000	463 900
		SSP5-8.5	387 300	22 000	51 500	313 800
		SSP1-2.6	578 800	25 200	62 000	491 600
2021—2040	CanESM5	SSP2-4.5	538 700	29 600	73 400	435 700
		SSP5-8.5	548 700	28 400	74 700	548 700
		SSP1-2.6	408 100	23 600	54 300	330 200
	CNRM-CM6-1	SSP2-4.5	470 200	25 600	62 000	382 500
		SSP5-8.5	486 500	24 500	63 400	398 500

基于MaxEnt模型的白鹤越冬栖息地潜在适生区分布研究

An prediction of the potential distribution of suitable habitat for Grus leucogeranus using the MaxEnt model

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