关键词: 土地利用/覆被变化, 转移矩阵, 驱动因素, 安徽省

Abstract:

【Objective】The study aims to determine land-use/cover changes (LUCC) and their driving factors in Anhui Province, and provide theoretical reference data for the use and management of land and resources in Anhui Province. 【Method】Based on the classification data of Landsat series remote sensing images with a resolution of 30 m in Anhui Province, the spatial and temporal changes of land use/cover types in Anhui Province in a 25 year period from 1995 to 2020 were analyzed using the structure, spatial distribution, transfer matrix, dynamic change of land use/cover types, and comprehensive index of land use degrees, as well as its cluster analysis. The principal component analysis(PCA) was used to analyze the 13 factors that affect LUCC. 【Result】The cultivated land ranked first, followed by forest land and construction land in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2020. Cultivated land, forest land and grassland decreased by 3 826.6, 164.7 and 78.5 km², respectively, while the construction land, water area and unutilized land increased by 3 895.9, 160.9 and 16.2 km², respectively. The transfer area between the cultivated and constructed land was the largest. From 2005 to 2015, the decrease in the cultivated land, forest land and grassland and the increase in construction land showed the most obvious trends. From 2015 to 2020, the area of construction land converted to the cultivated land increased significantly. The change rates of the comprehensive index of land use degrees over 25 years in Hefei (2.18%) and Wuhu (1.60%), and the mining cities of Tongling (3.83%) and Huaibei (1.60%) were higher than those in Huangshan (0.42%) and Lu’an (0.66%), which feature mainly mountainous and hilly terrains. The results of the comprehensive index clustering analysis of the degree of land use in each city in 2020 were divided into three categories. The first category was Bozhou and Fuyang, which had the highest degrees of land development and utilization. The second category was Chuzhou, Ma’anshan, and other medium. The third category was Chizhou, Huangshan, and so on, which was the lowest. The dynamic attitude of the single and comprehensive LUCC was small before 2005, large from 2005 to 2015, and then decreased again after 2015. The results showed that the urbanization speed, economic development, and improvement in living standards and policy factors after 2015 were also the main driving forces of the LUCC in Anhui Province. 【Conclusion】With the economic and social development of Anhui Province from 2005 to 2015, LUCC increased sharply, and 2 926.1 km² of the cultivated land was occupied by the construction land. After 2015, the implementation of relevant land use and ecological policies resulted in the reduction of the integrated dynamic degree of the LUCC to 0.05%. However, there was still a decrease in the cultivated land and an increase in the construction land. Therefore, in the future, according to the LUCC characteristics and the specific situation of the economy, society, and natural resources of Anhui Province, policies for the rational utilization and development of land resources, such as the basic farmland protection and the balance of farmland occupation and compensation, should be implemented to promote the sustainable development of Anhui Province.

Key words: land use/cover change (LUCC), transfer matrix, driving factor, Anhui Province