耦合InVEST与FLUS模型的无锡市产水量时空变化与预测

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312001

国家林草科技领军期刊
中国精品科技期刊
中国高校百佳科技期刊
江苏省新闻出版政府奖期刊奖
RCCSE林学权威期刊（A+）
CSCD核心期刊
Scopus数据库收录期刊
中文核心期刊
SCD核心期刊

作者加群：102861116

微信公众号：南京林业大学学报

高级检索

南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3): 119-128.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312001

• 专题报道Ⅲ：智慧林业之林业与环境研究 • 上一篇下一篇

耦合InVEST与FLUS模型的无锡市产水量时空变化与预测

包逸涛¹^,²(), 吴朝明³, 朱骊³, 杨锐³, 戈禹³, 刘自强¹^,²^,^*()

1.南京林业大学林草学院、水土保持学院,江苏省水土保持与生态修复重点实验室,南方现代林业协同创新中心,江苏南京 210037
2.宁夏大学西北土地退化与生态恢复国家重点实验室培育基地,西北退化生态系统恢复与重建教育部重点实验室,宁夏银川 750021
3.江苏省水文水资源勘测局无锡分局,江苏无锡 214031

收稿日期:2023-12-01 接受日期:2024-02-09 出版日期:2025-05-30 发布日期:2025-05-27
通讯作者: *刘自强(liuzistrong@njfu.edu.cn),副教授。
作者简介:
包逸涛(839269153@qq.com)。
基金资助:
西北土地退化与生态恢复重点实验室(宁夏大学)开放基金项目(LDER2022Q02);国家自然科学基金项目(42377068);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20231290);江苏省高校“青蓝工程”水土保持实践教学团队。

Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield in Wuxi City by coupling InVEST and FLUS models

BAO Yitao¹^,²(), WU Chaoming³, ZHU Li³, YANG Rui³, GE Yu³, LIU Ziqiang¹^,²^,^*()

1. Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, College of Forestry and Grassland, College of Water and Soil Coservation, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2. Breeding Base for State Key Laboratory of Land Degradation and Ecological Restoration in Northwestern China, Key Laboratory of Restoration and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystems in Northwestern China of Ministry of Education, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China
3. Wuxi Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau, Wuxi 214031, China

Received:2023-12-01 Accepted:2024-02-09 Online:2025-05-30 Published:2025-05-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】预测无锡市未来不同情景下土地利用转移,研究产水量服务功能时空变化及驱动因素,为当地生态与社会经济可持续发展提供依据。【方法】基于FLUS及InVEST模型,利用历史用地转移趋势预测未来情景土地利用变化,分析1990—2030年无锡市产水量服务功能空间异质性,并通过情景分析法探究产水量主导驱动因素。【结果】无锡市的历史土地利用演变主要由耕地向发展用地转移,在研究期内,耕地面积减少32.69%,发展用地面积增加217.25%;研究区历史年均产水体积为2.552×10⁹ m³,年平均产水深度为612.34 mm,年产水量与降水量和蒸散量的变化趋势保持一致,呈现出先下降后上升的模式。在空间上,产水量高值区集中在西南部林地和东北部草地区,低值区集中在中部水域。在1990—2000、1990—2010、1990—2020及2020—2030年4个时段内,产水量的变化受到土地利用转移和降水量变动的影响,这两个因素对4个时段产水量的贡献率分别为-10.00%和110.00%、12.50%和87.50%、1.00%和99.00%及5.46%和94.54%。降水量是影响产水量变化的主要因素。【结论】历史及未来情景下,降水量变化对产水量的影响显著高于土地利用对产水量的影响,降水量是无锡市产水量变化的关键驱动力,此结果可为研究区水资源配置提供科学依据。

关键词: InVEST模型, FLUS模型, 产水量, 驱动因子, 土地利用, 无锡市

Abstract:

【Objective】Forecasting future land use changes under different scenarios in Wuxi City and studying the spatial and temporal variations in water yield services and their driving factors are crucial for local ecological and socio-economic sustainability. 【Method】The FLUS and InVEST models were used to predict future land use changes based on historical trends. The spatial and temporal variations in water yield services in Wuxi City from 1990 to 2030 were analyzed, and scenario analysis was employed to identify the main factors influencing water yield.【Result】The primary historical land use change in Wuxi had been the conversion of cultivated land to developed land. During the study period, the area of cultivated land decreased by 32.69%, while developed land increased by 217.25%. The historical annual average water yield in Wuxi was 2.552 × 10⁹ m³, with a depth of 612.34 mm. Water yield varied with rainfall and evapotranspiration, initially decreasing and then increasing. Spatially,the high-value areas of water production were concentrated in the southwestern forest and northeastern grassland areas, while the low value areas were concentrated in the central water area. During the four time periods of 1990 to 2000, 1990 to 2010, 1990 to 2020, and 2020 to 2030, the changes in water yield were influenced by land use transfer and changes in precipitation. These two factors contributed to the water yield of the four time periods by -10.00% and 110.00%, 12.50% and 87.50%, 1.00% and 99.00%, 5.46% and 94.54%, respectively. Precipitation is the main factor affecting changes in water yield. 【Conclusion】Scenario analysis results indicate that changes in rainfall have a more significant impact on water yield than changes in land use. Rainfall is the primary driver of variations in water yield, providing a scientific basis for water allocation in the study area.

Key words: InVEST model, FLUS model, water yield, driving factors, land use, Wuxi City

中图分类号:

Q148
S757

包逸涛,吴朝明,朱骊,等. 耦合InVEST与FLUS模型的无锡市产水量时空变化与预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 49(3): 119-128.

BAO Yitao, WU Chaoming, ZHU Li, YANG Rui, GE Yu, LIU Ziqiang. Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield in Wuxi City by coupling InVEST and FLUS models[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2025, 49(3): 119-128.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312001.

图/表 9

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

表2

图7

参考文献 35

[1]	LOOMES R, O’NEILL K. Nature’s services:societal dependence on natural ecosystems[J]. Pacific Conservation Biology, 2000, 6(3):274.DOI: 10.1071/pc000274.
[2]	范耘恺, 马书明. 多情景模拟土地利用变化下的生态系统服务评估及其权衡/协同研究:以辽宁省沈抚地区为例[J]. 环境科学学报, 2023, 43(10):419-434.
	FAN Y K, MA S M. Ecosystem services and their trade-offs/synergies analysis under multi-scenario simulation of land use change: a case study of Shen yang and Fushun City,Liaoning Province[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2023, 43(10):419-434.DOI: 10.13671/j.hjkxxb.2023.0085.
[3]	CUDENNEC C, LEDUC C, KOUTSOYIANNIS D. Dryland hydrology in Mediterranean regions:a review[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2007, 52(6):1077-1087.DOI: 10.1623/hysj.52.6.1077.
[4]	刘安友, 邹进, 刘磊, 等. 饮用水源地产水量时空变化及其影响因子:以云龙水库为例[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023, 43(4):385-395.
	LIU A Y, ZOU J, LIU L, et al. Spatiotemporal variation and influencing factors of water yield in drinking water sources:a case study at Yunlong Reservoir basin[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023, 43(4):385-395.DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.04.044.
[5]	唐志雄, 周自翔, 白继洲, 等. 泾河流域生态系统服务权衡/协同关系的尺度异质性研究[J]. 水土保持研究, 2023, 30(4):318-326.
	TANG Z X, ZHOU Z X, BAI J Z, et al. Scale seteroge-neity of ecosystem service trade-offs/synergies in the Jinghe River basin[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023, 30(4):318-326.DOI: 10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2023.04.043.
[6]	WANG Z M, LI Q Z, LIU L, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and attribution analysis of water yield in the Xiangjiang River basin (XRB) based on the InVEST model[J]. Water, 2023, 15(3):514.DOI: 10.3390/w15030514.
[7]	GONG W F, DUAN X Y, MAO M J, et al. Assessing the impact of land use and changes in land cover related to carbon storage by linking trajectory analysis and InVEST models in the Nandu River basin on Hainan Island in China[J]. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2022,10:1038752.DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2022.1038752.
[8]	MENGIST W, SOROMESSA T, FEYISA G L. Landscape change effects on habitat quality in a forest biosphere reserve:implications for the conservation of native habitats[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021,329:129778.DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129778.
[9]	SHAO Q F, HAN L B, LV L F, et al. Spatiotemporal variation and factors influencing water yield services in the Hengduan Mountains,China[J]. Remote Sensing, 2023, 15(16):4087.DOI: 10.3390/rs15164087.
[10]	周雪彤, 孙文义, 穆兴民, 等. 1990—2020年三江源水源涵养能力时空变化及影响因素[J]. 生态学报, 2023, 43(23):9844-9855.
	ZHOU X T, SUN W Y, MU X M, et al. Spatiotemporal variation and influencing factors of water conservation capacity in Three-River Headwaters region from 1990 to 2020[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2023, 43(23):9844-9855.DOI: 10.20103/j.stxb.202212093547.
[11]	朱志洪, 周本智, 王懿祥, 等. 近30年千岛湖流域产水量时空变化及其影响因子分析[J]. 南京林业大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 47(3):111-119.
	ZHU Z H, ZHOU B Z, WANG Y X, et al. Spatio-temporal variations and influencing factors of water yield in the Thousand-Island Lake basin in the past 30 years[J]. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition), 2023, 47(3):111-119.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202111028.
[12]	MATIOS E, BURNEY J. Ecosystem services mapping for sustainable agricultural water management in California’s central valley[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2017, 51(5):2593-2601.DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b05426.
[13]	VALENCIA J B, GURYANOV V V, MESA-DIEZ J, et al. Assessing the effectiveness of the use of the InVEST annual water yield model for the rivers of Colombia:a case study of the Meta River basin[J]. Water, 2023, 15(8):1617.DOI: 10.3390/w15081617.
[14]	DENNEDY-FRANK P J, MUENICH R L, CHAUBEY I, et al. Comparing two tools for ecosystem service assessments regarding water resources decisions[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2016, 177:331-340.DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.03.012.
[15]	BELETE M, DENG J S, ZHOU M M, et al. A new approach to modeling water balance in Nile river basin,Africa[J]. Sustai-nability, 2018, 10(3):810.DOI: 10.3390/su10030810.
[16]	汪勇政, 徐雅利, 余浩然. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的安徽省碳储量时空变化预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023, 43(3):277-289.
	WANG Y Z, XU Y L, YU H R. Prediction of spatial and temporal changes of carbon stocks in Anhui Province based on PLUS-InVEST model[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3):277-289.DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.03.032.
[17]	WANG X J, LIU G X, LIN D R, et al. Water yield service influence by climate and land use change based on InVEST model in the monsoon hilly watershed in south China[J]. Geomatics,Natural Hazards and Risk, 2022, 13(1):2024-2048.DOI: 10.1080/19475705.2022.2104174.
[18]	WANG Z X, XIAO L, YAN H M, et al. Optimization of the ecological network structure based on scenario simulation and trade-offs/synergies among ecosystem services in Nanping[J]. Remote Sensing, 2022, 14(20):5245.DOI: 10.3390/rs14205245.
[19]	陈泽怡, 余珮珩, 陈奕云, 等. 共享社会经济路径下汉江流域产水和水质净化服务时空演变[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2021, 29(10):1800-1814.
	CHEN Z Y, YU P H, CHEN Y Y, et al. Spatio-temporal changes of water resources ecosystem services in the Hanjiang River basin based on the shared socioeconomic pathway[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2021, 29(10):1800-1814.DOI: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210160.
[20]	万志纲, 丁文广, 蒲晓婷, 等. 祁连山国家公园产水量时空变化及驱动因素分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2023, 37(6):161-169.
	WAN Z G, DING W G, PU X T, et al. Analysis of the spatial-temporal variation and driving factors of water yield in Qilian Mountain National Park[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023, 37(6):161-169.DOI: 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.06.021.
[21]	丁家宝, 张福平, 张元, 等. 气候与土地利用变化背景下青海湖流域产水量时空变化[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 58(1):47-56.
	DING J B, ZHANG F P, ZHANG Y, et al. Temporal and spatial variations in water yield of the Qinghai Lake water system under climate and land use changes[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 2022, 58(1):47-56.DOI: 10.13885/j.issn.0455-2059.2022.01.006.
[22]	LIAN X H, QI Y, WANG H W, et al. Assessing changes of water yield in Qinghai Lake watershed of China[J]. Water, 2020, 12(1):11.DOI: 10.3390/w12010011.
[23]	GUO Q, YU C X, XU Z H, et al. Impacts of climate and land-use changes on water yields:similarities and differences among typical watersheds distributed throughout China[J]. Journal of Hydrology:Regional Studies, 2023,45:101294.DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101294.
[24]	谢保鹏, 杨洁, 陈英, 等. 黄河流域甘青段生态系统服务权衡协同关系[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 58(4):443-450.
	XIE B P, YANG J, CHEN Y, et al. Trade-off and synergy of ecosystem services in Gansu-Qinghai section of the Yellow River basin[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 2022, 58(4):443-450.DOI: 10.13885/j.issn.0455-2059.2022.04.003.
[25]	陈竹安, 刘子强, 危小建, 等. 2000—2019年鄱阳湖生态经济区水源涵养时空变化[J]. 测绘通报, 2022(8):1-6.
	CHEN Z A, LIU Z Q, WEI X J, et al. Spatio-temporal changes of water conservation in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone from 2000 to 2019[J]. Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping, 2022(8):1-6.DOI: 10.13474/j.cnki.11-2246.2022.0253.
[26]	王世清, 冀正欣, 卢龙辉, 等. 张家口市林地与水源涵养功能时空变化及其耦合关系[J]. 农业工程学报, 2023, 39(10):131-140.
	WANG S Q, JI Z X, LU L H, et al. Spatiotemporal changes and coupling relationship between forestland and water conservation function in Zhangjiakou City of China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2023, 39(10):131-140.DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202301027.
[27]	荔琢, 侯鹏, 蒋卫国, 等. 土地利用变化对生态系统服务功能的驱动效应研究:以秦岭地区自然保护区为例[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 59(2):196-205.
	LI Z, HOU P, JIANG W G, et al. The driving effect of land use changes on ecosystem services:a case study at the Qinling Natural Reserves[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science), 2023, 59(2):196-205.DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022034.
[28]	LI M Y, LIANG D, XIA J, et al. Evaluation of water conservation function of Danjiang River basin in Qinling Mountains,China based on InVEST model[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2021,286:112212.DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112212.
[29]	WANG H X, HUANG L T, ZHANG H T, et al. Development of a decision framework for river health and water yield ecosystem service in watershed[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2023,623:129773.DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129773.
[30]	NAHIB I, AMBARWULAN W, RAHADIATI A, et al. Assessment of the impacts of climate and LULC changes on the water yield in the citarum river basin,west Java Province,Indonesia[J]. Sustai-nability, 2021, 13(7):3919.DOI: 10.3390/su13073919.
[31]	GOSAL A S, EVANS P M, BULLOCK J M, et al. Understanding the accuracy of modelled changes in freshwater provision over time[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2022,833:155042.DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155042.
[32]	苏伯儒, 刘某承. 基于生态系统服务权衡的生态系统管理策略研究进展[J]. 自然资源学报, 2023, 38(7):1848-1862.
	SU B R, LIU M C. Research progress in ecosystem management strategies based on ecosystem services trade-offs[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2023, 38(7):1848-1862.DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20230714.
[33]	伍堂银, 周忠发, 张露, 等. 基于InVEST模型的南北盘江流域产水量时空变化研究[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023, 43(3):129-138.
	WU T Y, ZHOU Z F, ZHANG L, et al. Spatial-temporal variation of water yield in Nanbei Panjiang River basin based on InVEST model[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3):129-138.DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.03.017.
[34]	VILLAMIZAR S R, PINEDA S M, CARRILLO G A. The effects of land use and climate change on the water yield of a watershed in Colombia[J]. Water, 2019, 11(2):285.DOI: 10.3390/w11020285.
[35]	ZHANG X, ZHANG G S, LONG X, et al. Identifying the drivers of water yield ecosystem service:a case study in the Yangtze River basin,China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2021,132:108304.DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108304.

情景设置 scenario setting	耕地 crop land	林地 forest land	草地 grass land	水域 water- body	发展用地 development land	未利用土地 unused land
自然发展 natural development	0.75	0.55	0.40	0.15	0.90	0.10
自然保护 natural protection	0.20	1.00	0.90	0.60	0.40	0.10
经济增长 economic growth	0.90	0.40	0.30	0.10	1.00	0.10

情景 scenario	土地利用与气候设置 land use and climate settings	产水体积/×10⁹ m³ water yield volume	产水体积变化/×10⁸ m³ change of water yield volume
基准 baseline	2020年土地利用及气候	3.842 42
降水量改变 precipitation change	1990年降水量	2.733 74	-11.086 8
	2000年降水量	2.433 91	-14.085 1
	2010年降水量	2.624 00	-12.184 2
潜在蒸散发改变 potential evapotranspiration change	1990年潜在蒸散发	3.570 69	-2.717 3
	2000年潜在蒸散发	3.622 26	-2.201 6
	2010年潜在蒸散发	3.614 38	-2.280 4
土地利用改变 land use change	1990年土地利用	3.511 30	-3.311 2
	2000年土地利用	3.539 25	-3.031 7
	2010年土地利用	3.566 33	-2.760 9
2030年未来情景 future scenario for 2030	自然发展	3.050 87	-7.915 5
	自然保护	3.090 14	-7.522 8
	经济发展	3.026 72	-8.157 0

耦合InVEST与FLUS模型的无锡市产水量时空变化与预测

Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield in Wuxi City by coupling InVEST and FLUS models

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 9

参考文献 35

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

作者

读者

审稿

[1]	孔凡斌, 金晨涛, 徐彩瑶. 罗霄山地区生态系统服务与居民福祉耦合协调关系变化及其影响因素[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 49(1): 245-254.
[2]	杨宇萍, 陈彩虹, 佘济云, 林楚璇, 肖芬, 陈楚琳. 多情景模拟下县域生境质量时空演变预测——以桃源县为例[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 48(6): 201-209.
[3]	赵晓雨, 王益明, 何旭, 刘小燕, 张佳敏, 邓懿, 冯耀, 初磊, 张增信. 基于InVEST模型的无锡市生境质量变化研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 48(5): 165-172.
[4]	张莹, 王让会, 刘春伟, 周丽敏. 祁连山自然保护区生境质量模拟及预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 48(3): 135-144.
[5]	张佳敏, 刘小燕, 邓懿, 冯耀, 朱斌, 初磊, 张增信. 无锡市小微湿地演变特征及影响因素分析[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 48(2): 27-36.
[6]	栾春凤, 郭欣然. 生态安全格局视角下的土地利用冲突识别研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(5): 156-164.
[7]	梁梓澳, 王祥福, 王维枫, 闫珂, 李愿会, 董文婷, 王荣女. 青海省天保工程土壤保持效益评价研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(5): 181-188.
[8]	樊柏青, 刘东云, 王思远, 穆罕默德·阿米尔·西迪基. 城市绿色空间地表温度的时空演变特征——以北京市六环内区域为例[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(5): 197-204.
[9]	李长爱, 刘玲, 邱冰, 聂存明, 宁丽丽, 李亚亮, 王慧, 刘星宇, 杨素慧. 安徽省土地利用/覆被时空变化及其驱动因素分析[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(5): 213-223.
[10]	杨宇萍, 胡文敏, 贾冠宇, 李果, 李毅. 基于InVEST与ANN-CA模型的环洞庭湖区土地利用碳储量情景模拟[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(4): 175-184.
[11]	沈浩, 姜姜, 周晨, 潘庆全. 江西石城不同起源阔叶林碳储量驱动因子分析[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(4): 185-190.
[12]	戚丽萍, 栾兆擎, 魏勉, 闫丹丹, 李静泰, 么秀颖, 刘垚, 谢思荧, 盛昱凤. 基于土地利用的江苏省各市生态系统服务价值时空变化研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(4): 200-208.
[13]	朱志洪, 周本智, 王懿祥, 祁军, 李爱博, 黄润霞. 近30年千岛湖流域产水量时空变化及其影响因子分析[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(3): 111-119.
[14]	张育诚, 韩念龙, 胡珂, 于淼, 黎兴强. 海南岛中部山区土地利用变化对碳储量时空分异的影响[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(2): 115-122.
[15]	李潇, 杨加猛, 陈禹衡, 毛岭峰, 葛之葳. 基于土地利用变化的江苏盐城湿地自然保护区生境质量评估[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2022, 46(5): 169-176.