Temperature, precipitation and runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP 6 multi-model

HE Xu, MIAO Zimei, TIAN Jiaxi, YANG Liu, ZHANG Zengxin, ZHU Bin

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2) : 1-8.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2) : 1-8. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202203028

Temperature, precipitation and runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP 6 multi-model

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Abstract

【Objective】 This research aims to explore the impact of future climate change on predicted runoff trends in the Yangtze River basin and provide a basis for early flood warning and prevention measures in the Yangtze River basin and other regions. 【Method】 Temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Yangtze River basin from 1961 to 2014 were evaluated by using the multi-mode set average (MME) of the international coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP 6) and the SWAT hydrological model and predicted under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios from 2020 to 2099.【Result】 (1) Compared with the single model, MME showed better performance in simulating temperature and precipitation during historical periods, with a correlation coefficient with the observation value was >0.90. Further, MME simulated the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation well. (2) The MME analysis showed that during 2020 and 2099, temperature and precipitation increases in the Yangtze River basin under all scenarios were <50% and <20%, respectively. Simulated temperature under the SSP5-8.5 scenario was 1.23 ℃ higher than that under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, and 0.99 ℃ higher than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. (3) Overall, future annual runoff of the entire Yangtze River basin increased significantly and reached 40 380 m3/s under the SSP5-5.8 scenario at the end of the 21st century.【Conclusion】 Temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Yangtze River basin are predicted to increase in the future, whereas flood disasters under low emission scenarios are relatively less likely.

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Yangtze River basin / climate change / coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP 6) / ensemble estimation / runoff simulation

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HE Xu , MIAO Zimei , TIAN Jiaxi , et al . Temperature, precipitation and runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP 6 multi-model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2024, 48(2): 1-8 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202203028

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