Simulation and prediction of habitat quality in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202211025

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (3): 135-144.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202211025

Special Issue: 自然保护地体系下景观设计理论与实践研究

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Simulation and prediction of habitat quality in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve

ZHANG Ying(), WANG Ranghui^*(), LIU Chunwei, ZHOU Limin

School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

Received:2022-11-18 Revised:2023-03-27 Online:2024-05-30 Published:2024-06-14

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 To explore the potential problems and conflicts of habitat quality in the Qilianshan Nature Reserve as per future land use changes; to respond to the regional ecological environmental protection policy per the concept of “Mountain, Water, Forest, Field, Lake, Grass, and Sand”, and to provide a scientific basis for regional ecological management and sustainable development. 【Method】 Based on five phases of land use data from 2000 to 2020, the PLUS model was used to simulate land use under different scenarios in the future through 2030. The InVEST model was coupled to assess and predict the current and future habitat quality of the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve. 【Results】 Land use in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve was dominated by grassland, forest land, and unused land, and an increase in the area of ecological land. The increase in the area of ecological land under the ecological protection scenario was significantly higher than under the natural development scenario for 2030. Habitat quality showed a spatial distribution pattern of “low in the northwest and high in the southeast,” with the mean value of habitat quality from 2000 to 2020 as follows: 0.656 2, 0.656 3, 0.665 8, 0.664 6, and 0.665 7, respectively. This showed a fluctuating trend of increasing, decreasing, and increasing values. The average value of habitat quality in 2030 was 0.667 9 under the ecological protection scenario and 0.665 6 under the natural development scenario. The total habitat contribution under the ecological protection scenario was greater than that under the natural development scenario. The degree of habitat degradation increased and then decreased from 2000 to 2030, showed a spatial distribution from weak to strong circles from the center outwards, with the most degraded areas located at the edges of grassland adjacent to unused land—the areas most affected by human activities. 【Conclusion】 The habitat quality of the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve is developing in a positive direction; the habitat quality under the future ecological protection scenario is significantly better than that under the natural development scenario; strengthening the protection of ecological land such as woodland and grassland is conducive to the improvement of habitat quality.

Key words: habitat quality, land use, PLUS model, InVEST model, the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve

CLC Number:

S759.9
X826

ZHANG Ying, WANG Ranghui, LIU Chunwei, ZHOU Limin. Simulation and prediction of habitat quality in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2024, 48(3): 135-144.

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数据类型 data type	数据名称 data name	因素 factor	分辨率 resolution	数据源 data source
基础数据basic data	土地利用数据	2000—2020年5期土地利用数据	30 m	中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心
驱动因子 driving factor	气候和环境数据	气温	1 km	中国气象科学共享服务网
		降水量	1 km
		高程	30 m	地理空间数据云
		坡度	30 m
		到河流的距离		全国地理信息资源目录服务系统
		土壤类型	1 km	中国科学院资源与环境数据中心
	社会经济数据	GDP	1 km
		人口	1 km
		到道路的距离		全国地理信息资源目录服务系统

用地类型 land use type	自然发展情景natural development scenario						生态保护情景ecological protection scenario
用地类型 land use type	耕地 CL	林地 FL	草地 GL	水域 WA	建设用地 ConL	未利用地 UL	耕地 CL	林地 FL	草地 GL	水域 WA	建设用地 ConL	未利用地 UL
耕地CL	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
林地FL	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
草地GL	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0
水域WA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
建设用地ConL	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
未利用地UL	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

年份 year		各质量等级生境面积/km² habitat area of each quality level					各等级生境面积占比/% proportion of different habitat areas
年份 year		低 lower	较低 low	中等 medium	较高 high	高 higher	低 lower	较低 low	中等 medium	较高 high	高 higher
2000		748.09	20 503.70	159.57	1 010.41	27 742.58	1.49	40.87	0.32	2.01	55.30
2005		747.91	20 501.38	160.13	1 011.11	27 744.90	1.49	40.87	0.32	2.02	55.31
2010		761.98	19 803.88	167.22	1 681.19	27 750.08	1.52	39.48	0.33	3.35	55.32
2015		761.16	19 890.56	166.57	1 594.94	27 751.12	1.52	39.65	0.33	3.18	55.32
2020		756.90	19 802.28	166.09	1 789.25	27 649.27	1.51	39.48	0.33	3.57	55.12
2030	自然发展natural development	818.98	19 732.38	164.73	1 891.53	27 556.17	1.63	39.34	0.33	3.77	54.93
2030	生态保护ecological protection	750.71	19 643.31	165.06	2 018.31	27 586.40	1.50	39.16	0.33	4.02	54.99

地类转移 land transfer	自然发展情景 natural development		生态保护情景 ecological protection
地类转移 land transfer	转移面积/km² transfer area	贡献率/% contribution rate	转移面积/km² transfer area	贡献率/% contribution rate
草地转林地GL to FL	30.87	0.04	56.25	0.03
草地转建设用地 GL to ConL	4.38	-3.01	—	—
草地转水域GL to WA	96.27	-6.57	171.45	-4.31
耕地转水域CL to WA	0.12	0.03	0.05	0.01
耕地转林地CL to FL	1.01	0.35	0.82	0.10
耕地转草地CL to GL	0.03	0.01	—	—
耕地转建设用地 CL to ConL	0.01	0	0.01	0
建设用地转草地 ConL to GL	2.91	2.00	—	—
未利用地转草地 UL to GL	—	—	96.74	19.60
未利用地转建设用地UL to ConL	0.02	0	0.07	0
未利用地转林地 UL to FL	3.14	1.73	11.19	2.27
未利用地转水域 UL to WA	6.28	3.03	57.06	10.13

Simulation and prediction of habitat quality in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve

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用地类型 land use type	生境适宜度 habitat suitability	敏感度 sensitivity
用地类型 land use type	生境适宜度 habitat suitability	耕地 CL	道路 road	建设用地 ConL	未利用地 UL
CL	0.5	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.4
FL	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.6
GL	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.6
WA	0.9	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.4
ConL	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
UL	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.0