Risk assessments of forestry carbon sequestration projects based on Bayesian network

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.201912050

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (4): 210-218.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.201912050

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Risk assessments of forestry carbon sequestration projects based on Bayesian network

GAO Qinyi¹(), PAN Chunxia², LIU Qiang¹^,³, GU Guangtong¹, ZHU Yalu¹, WU Weiguang¹^,³^,^*()

1. School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Lin’an 311300, China
2. Anji County Natural Resources and Planning Bureau, Anji 313300, China
3. Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University, Lin’an 311300,China

Received:2019-12-24 Accepted:2020-04-15 Online:2021-07-30 Published:2021-07-30
Contact: WU Weiguang E-mail:gggqy66@163.com;wuwgccap@126.com

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】Developing forestry carbon sequestration is an important way to address climate change. With the gradual establishment and improvement of China’s carbon markets, forestry carbon sequestration projects have received widespread attention and have good development prospects, but they also face many uncertainties and risks. This study conducted a systematic risk assessment for forestry carbon sequestration projects under the Bayesian network principle and provided a scientific reference for risk management for other projects.【Method】Taking CCER (China certified emission reduction) forestry carbon sequestration projects as the research object, and using expert knowledge form multi-domain forestry carbon sequestration, this study constructed a risk assessment model for forestry carbon sequestration projects based on the Bayesian network by determining the network structure and calculating risk parameters. We combined the information of expert interviews and investigations to determine the risk list, and then determined the Bayesian network structure associated with the risk. We used the entropy weight method to calculate risk factor weight according to the expert’s scoring of the occurrence probability and the impact of various risk factors, so as to obtain the assessment result of each expert on the risk source and the total risk. Finally, all the parameters of the Bayesian network operation were obtained. Using the constructed risk assessment model, we measured the overall risk level of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects and determined the main risk factors for various risks. Considering the differences in the characteristics of different types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects, the risk assessment model was adaptively adjusted by including project-type nodes. This was done to calculate the risk values of four types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects through the node probability simulation function of the Bayesian network and to compare the risk diffe-rences of different types of these four projects.【Result】①The overall risk value of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects was 1.932. Further, the risk levels of the four types from high to low were policy risk, market risk, technical risk, and natural risk, with the corresponding risk values being 2.150, 2.022, 1.925 and 1.546, respectively. ②For CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects, the main risk factors of policy risk were changes in forestry carbon sequestration trading rules and changes in national emission reduction policies. Meanwhile, the main risk factors of market risk included rising labor prices and rising costs of rented land. The main risk factors of technical risk were the projects failing to be issued and the projects failing to be filed; whereas, the main risk factors of natural risk included diseases, pests, and forest fires. ③The risk levels of different types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects from high to low were carbon sequestration afforestation project, bamboo afforestation project, forest management project and bamboo forest management project, with risk values of 2.221, 2.121, 1.954 and 1.705, respectively.【Conclusion】The Bayesian network can comprehensively consider both risk level and risk impact information, and had certain advantages in the project risk assessment. The risk level of CCER forestry carbon sequestration projects was medium, and the policy risks and market risks were relatively high under the current conditions. When making investment decisions for forestry carbon sequestration projects, enterprise entities should pay close attention to changes in carbon sequestration market policies and scientifically to evaluate project risks. Relevant departments should focus on reducing systemic risks caused by policy uncertainties, and improve the stability and activity of the carbon sequestration market, as well as simplify the development process of forestry carbon sequestration projects to reduce the transaction costs of the project development.

Key words: forestry carbon sequestration, risk assessment, Bayesian network, China certified emission reduction (CCER)

CLC Number:

S7-9
F316.2

GAO Qinyi, PAN Chunxia, LIU Qiang, GU Guangtong, ZHU Yalu, WU Weiguang. Risk assessments of forestry carbon sequestration projects based on Bayesian network[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2021, 45(4): 210-218.

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省份 province	项目开发机构(主体) project development organization (subject)		碳市场交易平台 carbon market trading platform		高校及科研机构 universities and scientific research institutions		林业政府部门 forestry government department		其他相关部门 other relevant departments		合计 sum
省份 province	人数 number	占比/% proportion	人数 number	占比/% proportion	人数 number	占比/% proportion	人数 number	占比/% proportion	人数 number	占比/% proportion	人数 number	占比/% proportion
广东省 Guangdong	17	37.0	7	15.2	6	13.0	16	34.8	0	0.0	46	100.0
福建省 Fujian	12	36.4	0	0.0	10	30.3	6	18.2	5	15.2	33	100.0
江西省 Jiangxi	9	100.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	9	100.0
浙江省 Zhejiang	4	19.0	1	4.8	13	61.9	3	14.3	0	0.0	21	100.0
其他省 other	0	0.0	1	10.0	7	70.0	0	0.0	2	20.0	10	100.0

风险源 sources of risk	风险因子 risk factor	互信息值 mutual information value	风险源 sources of risk	风险因子 risk factor	互信息值 mutual information value
自然风险 natural risk	森林火灾	0.118	市场风险 market risk	碳价格下降	0.002
	病虫害	0.157		劳动力价格上涨	0.004
	风灾雪灾	0.105		土地租金上涨	0.004
	地质灾害	0.092		利率上涨导致融资成本增加	0.003
技术风险 technical risk	项目参与者未能按技术标准执行	0.004		碳市场供给过剩	0.002
	项目参与者未按作业设计实施	0.005	政策风险 policy risk	林业碳汇项目认定标准变化	0.047
	项目参与者中途退出项目	0.012		国家减排政策变化	0.109
	项目未能获得备案	0.014		林业碳汇交易规则变化	0.113
	项目未能获得签发	0.016		国际气候谈判进程不确定性很大	0.063

项目类型 project type	风险状态概率/% risk status distribution			风险值 risk value
项目类型 project type	低 low	中 medium	高 high	风险值 risk value
碳汇造林 carbon sequestration afforestation	22.9	32.1	45.0	2.221
森林经营 forest management	25.5	53.6	20.9	1.954
竹子造林 bamboo afforestation	10.6	66.7	22.7	2.121
竹林经营 bamboo management	41.1	47.6	11.4	1.705

Risk assessments of forestry carbon sequestration projects based on Bayesian network

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