Parameters sensitivity and applicability evaluations of AnnAGNPS model in a small watershed of the Yangtze River Delta

ZHANG Shuifeng; ZHANG Jinchi; ZHUANG Jiayao; WANG Xinmeng; ZHANG Siyu

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202005003

ZHANG Shuifeng, ZHANG Jinchi, ZHUANG Jiayao, WANG Xinmeng, ZHANG Siyu

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3) : 183-192.

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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3) : 183-192. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202005003

Parameters sensitivity and applicability evaluations of AnnAGNPS model in a small watershed of the Yangtze River Delta

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Abstract

【Objective】 The sensitivity and applicability of the agricultural non-point source pollution model AnnAGNPS to the Peiqiao River watershed were studied to provide data supports and a scientific basis for the comprehensive watershed management in the Yangtze River Delta. 【Method】 The study area is Peiqiao River watershed of Shuiyang River system in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A differential sensitivity analysis (DSA) method was used for a parameter sensitivity analysis, and the applicability of the model was comprehensively evaluated using correlation coefficient (R²), efficiency coefficient (E) and relative error (E_R). 【Result】 The parameter with the highest degree of output sensitivity to runoff, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and sediment in the studied area was the curve number (CN). Soil erosion factor (K), soil and water conservation factor (P), and crop management factor (C), all had positive correlations and effects. The R² and E of runoff, sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus in the flood season and non-flood season from 2015 to 2018 were all greater than 0.80, and the absolute value of E_R was less than 12%. The simulation accuracy of runoff and sediment in the flood season was higher than that in the non-flood season, while the simulation accuracy of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in the non-flood season was slightly higher than that in the flood season. 【Conclusion】The calibrated AnnAGNPS model has a good simulation effect and reliable results in the Peiqiao River watershed and could be used to assist decision-makings on non-point source pollution and soil erosion management in a small agricultural watershed of the hill region of the Yangtze River Delta.

Key words

agricultural small watershed of the Yangtze River Delta / agricultural non-point source pollution model (AnnAGNPS) / parameters sensitivity / applicability evaluation / Peiqiao River watershed

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ZHANG Shuifeng , ZHANG Jinchi , ZHUANG Jiayao , et al . Parameters sensitivity and applicability evaluations of AnnAGNPS model in a small watershed of the Yangtze River Delta[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2021, 45(3): 183-192 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202005003

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Abstract

基流是河川径流的重要组成部分。在干旱半干旱地区,基流对于维持水源的稳定性及持续性、确定河流生态需水等方面具有重要作用。因此,基流分割结果的准确性至关重要。本文以黄河流域上游小流域为研究区,分别使用滑动最小值法和数字滤波法对典型年进行基流分割,然后用数字滤波法对1980-2014年日均径流进行基流分割,并分析基流的变化趋势。研究表明,数字滤波法在干旱半干旱地区具有较好的应用效果,滑动最小值法分割的基流结果偏小;在特定研究区的参数难以确定时,应结合两种方法的优点确定最佳的基流分割方案。研究区1980-2014年的平均基流指数为0.69,高于全国平均值0.26、西北诸河区的0.57及黄河区的0.43;趋势分析显示,研究区的年径流、基流、BFI的增长幅度分别为0.086 (m<sup>3</sup>/s)/10a、0.169 (m<sup>3</sup>/s)/10a、0.038/10a。MK趋势检验结果显示,年径流未通过10%的显著性检验,增长趋势不明显;基流和BFI分别通过了2.5%和1%的显著性检验,增长趋势显著。

, ZHANG S

. Comparative study on two automatic baseflow separation methods in the arid and semi-arid regions[J]. Prog Geogr, 2017,36(7):864-872.DOI: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.07.008.

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