Drivers of forestland change in the Qinba Mountain region of Shaanxi based on the Logistic regression model

DENG Yuanjie, HOU Mengyang, ZHANG Xiao, JIA Lei, LI Yuanyuan, YAO Shunbo, GONG Zhiwen, LIU Guangquan

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1) : 106-114.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1) : 106-114. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202009045

Drivers of forestland change in the Qinba Mountain region of Shaanxi based on the Logistic regression model

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Abstract

【Objective】 This study sought to clarify the spatio-temporal changes in forest land and its drivers in the Qinba Mountain region of Shaanxi Province, China, and provide basis for forest land protection and sustainable utilization of forest land resource. 【Method】 Using remote-sensing and monitoring data of land use, this study first analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of forest land changes and landscape patterns in the Qinba Mountain region from 2000 to 2018. Then, we selected three categories (i.e., natural, socio-economic and geographic) including 12 influencing factors to conduct driving force analysis of increase and decrease to forestland in the Qinba Mountain region via Logistic regression model. 【Result】 From 2000 to 2018, the forested land area primarily experienced a net increase, where the total increase was 39 951.72 hm2; this was mainly converted from cultivated land. Specifically, the conversion of cultivated land to forested land was 218 300 hm2, accounting for 94% of the total forested land area. Natural and geographical drivers were the most important forces driving forested land change in the Qinba Mountain region. The dominant drivers of increase in forest land included factors such as altitude, distance to town, slope-temperature, soil organic matter content, slope ≥25°, and distance to rural residential areas. The dominant drivers for decreased forested land included factors such as altitude, slope of 15°-25°, distance to town, and distance to road. 【Conclusion】 Effective implementation of ecological restoration program such as the Grain for Green program is an important reason for the increase of forested land in the Qinba Mountain region. The decrease in forested land was caused by the combination of natural and geographic drivers in the context of a rapidly developing society and economy.

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forestland change / drivers / Logistic model / Qinba Mountain region of Shaanxi Province

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DENG Yuanjie , HOU Mengyang , ZHANG Xiao , et al . Drivers of forestland change in the Qinba Mountain region of Shaanxi based on the Logistic regression model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2022, 46(1): 106-114 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202009045

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