Simulation and analyses of ecological characteristics of Cerasus conradinae adaptability area

DONG Jingjing, CHEN Jie, YANG Hong, LI Meng, WANG Xianrong, YI Xiangui

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3) : 213-221.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3) : 213-221. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202101024

Simulation and analyses of ecological characteristics of Cerasus conradinae adaptability area

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Abstract

【Objective】Cerasus conradinae is a endemic plant resource in China, with high ornamental value and utilization prospects. The impacts of climate change on its geographical distribution in the present and future (2050s, 2070s) were analyzed to provide a theoretical basis for the protection and utilization of C. conradinae.【Method】Based on data from 201 geographical distribution points for C. conradinae combined with climate characteristics, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict its potential adaptive area in China. The contribution rate, knife cutting test, response curve drawing, principal component analysis and correlation analysis were used to make qualitative and quantitative analyses of the leading environmental factors.【Result】 The MaxEnt model precision detection is very reliable, with a regularized training gain of 0.945, and a test gain of 0.949, The potential adaptive area of C. conradinae is mainly in southwest, central and east China. The two core adaptive areas are concentrated in Chongqing and the area from the Sichuan Basin to the west, Wuling Mountain to the east, the Dalou Mountains to the south and Daba Mountain to the north, as well as the eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, the Miao Mountain range and the western edge of the Xuefeng Mountain range long strip area. The main environmental factors affecting its distributions were the wettest quarterly precipitation (bio 16), annual precipitation (bio 12), seasonal variation in temperature (bio 4) and the annual temperature difference (bio 7). Under the change of the 2050s future climate (CCSM4) scenario, the total adaptive area decreased compared with the contemporary area, but increased in the 2070s, and the extremely adaptive area spreading to the high latitude in a northeasterly direction, while the highly adaptive area spread in the low latitude direction.【Conclusion】The MaxEnt model can accurately predict the potential adaptive area of C. conradinae. The normal distribution area of C. conradinae is continuous and widespread, and the core area of germplasm resources protection and use is southwest, central and east China. This paper has laid an important foundation for further research on germplasm protection, phylogeography and resource use of Cerasus conradinae.

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Cerasus conradinae / MaxEnt / geographical distribution / dominant environmental factor

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DONG Jingjing , CHEN Jie , YANG Hong , et al . Simulation and analyses of ecological characteristics of Cerasus conradinae adaptability area[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2022, 46(3): 213-221 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202101024

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