Prediction of potential suitable areas of Cerasus discoidea in China based on the MaxEnt model

YANG Hong, DONG Jingjing, WU Tong, ZHOU Huajin, CHEN Jie, LI Meng, WANG Xianrong, YI Xiangui

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 131-138.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 131-138. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202108014

Prediction of potential suitable areas of Cerasus discoidea in China based on the MaxEnt model

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【Objective】Based on Cerasus discoidea of contemporary (1970-2000) suitable areas and the adaptive region of the future (2050s, 2070s) under climate change (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), these results provided a reference for the protection and utilization of C. discoidea germplasm resources. 【Method】Based on 19 climate variables and three topographic factors, combined with 52 valid specimens, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and Arc-GIS software were used to analyze and predict the main factors and their potential distribution areas of this species. 【Result】Under current environmental conditions, the potentially suitable areas for C. discoidea are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The main climatic factors affecting its distribution were precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), temperature seasonality (bio4), and slope (slo). In the future climate (BCC-CSM1.1), the total suitable area of species will decreased, however, in the 2050s, under moderate greenhouse gas emission conditions (RCP4.5), the total suitable area of species will reach a maximum of 7.49×105 km2. However, under the conditions of low (RCP2.6) and moderate (RCP4.5) greenhouse gas emissions in the 2050s and the 2070s, the moderately suitable areas remained unchanged. 【Conclusion】The suitable distribution area of C. discoidea is mainly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the low mountainous areas of Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces are the core areas of this germplasm resources distribution.

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Cerasus discoidea / suitable area / MaxEnt model

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YANG Hong , DONG Jingjing , WU Tong , et al . Prediction of potential suitable areas of Cerasus discoidea in China based on the MaxEnt model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2023, 47(4): 131-138 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202108014

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