Scenario simulation integrating the ANN-CA model with the InVEST model to investigate land-based carbon storage in the Dongting Lake area

YANG Yuping, HU Wenmin, JIA Guanyu, LI Guo, LI Yi

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 175-184.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 175-184. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202110020

Scenario simulation integrating the ANN-CA model with the InVEST model to investigate land-based carbon storage in the Dongting Lake area

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Abstract

【Objective】Multi-model simulation was utilized to explore land-use associated carbon storage, providing scientific reference for development in the Dongting Lake area.【Method】Land-use changes from 2005, 2010 and 2015 were taken as the research object and InVEST and ANN-CA were used to quantitatively and spatially simulate the changing land-use patterns and the associated carbon storage around Dongting Lake under protection of the water environment and biodiversity. Different carbon neutralization scenarios are discussed.【Result】In terms of land use area and carbon stock changes in the Dongting Lake area, the main land type change under water protection is a 1.50 km2 (increase 0.02%) increase in the water area by 2035, which will lead to minimal carbon stock changes; the main land type change under biodiversity protection is a 10.78 km2 (increase 0.05%) increase in woodland, which will result in an increase of 27.10×106 t (increase 44.28%) of carbon stock; and the main land type change under carbon neutralization is a decrease of 432.02 km2 (reduce 1.63%) in the amount of arable land, resulting in a decrease of 0.81×106 t (reduce 1.64%) carbon stock. Positive correlation was observed between land use area and carbon stock changes. DEM, slope and distance to the highway were negatively correlated with carbon storage and more carbon stored on sunny slopes than shady slopes. The main driving factors affecting land-use changes in Dongting Lake area are slope, DEM and population density.【Conclusion】The use of InVEST and ANN-CA was beneficial in simulating land use and carbon storage under multiple scenarios and provided a reference for the optimal allocation of land to obtain balance between ecological protection and regional development in the Dongting Lake area.

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Dongting Lake area / carbon storage / artificial neural network CA model / InVEST model

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YANG Yuping , HU Wenmin , JIA Guanyu , et al . Scenario simulation integrating the ANN-CA model with the InVEST model to investigate land-based carbon storage in the Dongting Lake area[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2023, 47(4): 175-184 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202110020

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