Developing height growth model of Larix kaempferi based on genetic and climate effects

GAI Junpeng, CHEN Dongsheng, JIA Weiwei, WANG Zheng

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 51-60.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 51-60. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202112005

Developing height growth model of Larix kaempferi based on genetic and climate effects

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Abstract

【Objective】 This study provides supports for accurate site quality evaluation and reasonable management plans for Larix kaempferi by studying the effects of genetic and climate changes on plant height. 【Method】 Using height growth data from L. kaempferi trees aged from 5 to 18 years in the Changlinggang Forest Farm in Jianshi County, Hubei Province and the Logistic equation as the basic theoretical growth model, we introduced provenances and climate variables reflecting genetic effects and used repetition as random parameters to construct a tree height growth model. Using this model, we were then able to analyze the effects of genetic and climate changes on tree height growth. 【Result】 Temperature and precipitation were the main climatic factors affecting L. kaempferi tree height growth in this area. Furthermore, the fitting accuracy of the model with temperature and precipitation inputs was higher than that of the basic model. Additionally, nonlinear mixed model based on repetition as a random effect (Radj2=0.820 3) fit better than did the growth model considering genetic and climatic factors (Radj2=0.806 2) and the basic logistic model (Radj2= 0.798 9). The height growth of different provenances was in accordance with the law of ‘slow-fast-slow’ growth; however, the time to reach the fast-growing point varied, and there were significant discrepancies in height growth among different provenances at different time nodes. 【Conclusion】 Genetic and climatic factors affected the height of L. kaempferi. Furthermore, the construction of a mixed model based on genetic and climatic effects can effectively improve the fitting accuracy of a model.

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provenance / climate change / tree height growth / nonlinear mixed effect model / dumb variable

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GAI Junpeng , CHEN Dongsheng , JIA Weiwei , et al. Developing height growth model of Larix kaempferi based on genetic and climate effects[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2023, 47(4): 51-60 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202112005

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