Modelling the potential distribution area of Populus davidiana in China based on the Biomod2

GAO Minglong, TIE Niu, ZHANG Chen, LI Fengzi, WU Yahan, LUO Qihui, WANG Zirui, LIU Lei, SA Rula

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2) : 247-255.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2) : 247-255. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202205022

Modelling the potential distribution area of Populus davidiana in China based on the Biomod2

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Abstract

【Objective】 This study aims to investigate the effects of changes in environmental factors on the distribution of Populus davidiana, and to provide theoretical support for the conservation and development of P. davidiana resources. 【Method】 This study applied Biomod2 to simulate changes in the spatial distribution pattern of P. davidiana in China's potential distribution areas under three future climatic conditions based on 134 geographical distribution data points of P. davidiana in China, combined with 18 climatic, soil and topographic factors. Then a combinatorial model based on the Biomod2 package was consturcted and identified the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of P. davidiana were identified. 【Result】 The current potential distribution areas of P. davidiana in China were mainly located at higher latitudes or higher altitudes on both sides of the 400 mm precipitation line, with a total area of about 1 560 340.9 km2, of which the Greater Khingan Mountains, Changbai Mountains, Taihang Mountains, Qinling Mountains, southern foot of Qilian Mountains, Hengduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and other areas are the highest suitable areas for P. davidiana. Under future climatic conditions, the overall trend of suitable areas for P. davidiana will shrink to southwest China, and the overall trend of suitable areas was decreasing. The ensemble model constructed based on the five optimal single models had better prediction results for suitable areas for P. davidiana compared to the single model, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistics were distributed as 0.91 and 0.73, with higher prediction accuracy. 【Conclusion】 The spatial distribution pattern of P. davidiana in China was mainly influenced by water and heat conditions, while altitude was also an important factor affecting its distribution. Under future climatic conditions, the area of P. davidiana distribution will gradually decrease based on the degree of climate warming. When planting P. davidiana for timber forests and as an ecological public welfare forest species, planting sites should be selected in areas where habitat suitability will not change significantly in the future, to reduce future losses because of climate change.

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Populus davidiana / Biomod2 / ensemble model / potential distribution area / global warming

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GAO Minglong , TIE Niu , ZHANG Chen , et al . Modelling the potential distribution area of Populus davidiana in China based on the Biomod2[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2024, 48(2): 247-255 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202205022

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