Prediction of potential distribution areas of the endangered Cathaya argyrophylla based on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) climate scenarios

LUO Chuying, SHE Jiyun, TANG Zichao

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (1) : 161-168.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (1) : 161-168. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202207027

Prediction of potential distribution areas of the endangered Cathaya argyrophylla based on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) climate scenarios

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Abstract

【Objective】This study explored key factors affecting the occurrence of endangered Cathaya argyrophylla populations and predicted their potential distribution areas in the present and future, providing a theoretical basis for the conservation and introduction of C. argyrophylla natural resources. 【Method】Based on 41 sample sites of C. argyrophylla, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution areas of C. argyrophylla under the current scenario by combining climate, topography, soil and radiation factor data, and to assess the effects of different environmental factors on the geographical distribution of C. argyrophylla. Also, future shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) were used as climate data to predict future changes in the growth distribution areas of C. argyrophylla. 【Result】Under the current climate conditions, the core suitable area for C. argyrophylla is approximately 1.325 × 105 km2, accounting for approximately 1.38% of China’s land area. It has a cumulative contribution rate of 91.9% to the distribution of C. argyrophylla due to precipitation in the driest month, downward ultraviolet radiation, altitude, and the lowest temperature in the coldest month. They are the dominant factor affecting the geographical distribution of C. argyrophylla. If the survival probability is greater than 0.5 as the adaptation range, the main environmental conditions suitable for the survival of C. argyrophylla are: precipitation in the driest month is 18.03~215.63 mm, downward ultraviolet radiation is 1 070 728~1 437 806 W/m2, altitude is 493.68~1 731.10 m, and the lowest temperature in the coldest month is -1.01~4.05 ℃. In the future, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, the core suitable areas for C. argyrophylla will increase. However, they will still be centered in Guizhou, Hunan, Guangxi, and Chongqing.【Conclusion】Precipitation during the driest month and downward ultraviolet radiation were the main factors influencing the potential distribution of C. argyrophylla. Under the three future climate scenarios, the core area suitable for C. argyrophylla showed an expanding trend. The expansion areas were mainly distributed in Yunnan, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guizhou. The intermediate development scenario (SSP2-4.5) was more suitable for the growth and reproduction of C. argyrophylla. This study provides an important theoretical basis for the conservation of C. argyrophylla planting resources.

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Cathaya argyrophylla / shared socio-economic pathways(SSPs) / potential distribution area / climatic factor / endangered plant

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LUO Chuying , SHE Jiyun , TANG Zichao. Prediction of potential distribution areas of the endangered Cathaya argyrophylla based on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) climate scenarios[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2024, 48(1): 161-168 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202207027

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