Simulation and prediction of habitat quality in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve

ZHANG Ying, WANG Ranghui, LIU Chunwei, ZHOU Limin

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (3) : 135-144.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (3) : 135-144. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202211025

Simulation and prediction of habitat quality in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve

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Abstract

【Objective】 To explore the potential problems and conflicts of habitat quality in the Qilianshan Nature Reserve as per future land use changes; to respond to the regional ecological environmental protection policy per the concept of “Mountain, Water, Forest, Field, Lake, Grass, and Sand”, and to provide a scientific basis for regional ecological management and sustainable development. 【Method】 Based on five phases of land use data from 2000 to 2020, the PLUS model was used to simulate land use under different scenarios in the future through 2030. The InVEST model was coupled to assess and predict the current and future habitat quality of the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve. 【Results】 Land use in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve was dominated by grassland, forest land, and unused land, and an increase in the area of ecological land. The increase in the area of ecological land under the ecological protection scenario was significantly higher than under the natural development scenario for 2030. Habitat quality showed a spatial distribution pattern of “low in the northwest and high in the southeast,” with the mean value of habitat quality from 2000 to 2020 as follows: 0.656 2, 0.656 3, 0.665 8, 0.664 6, and 0.665 7, respectively. This showed a fluctuating trend of increasing, decreasing, and increasing values. The average value of habitat quality in 2030 was 0.667 9 under the ecological protection scenario and 0.665 6 under the natural development scenario. The total habitat contribution under the ecological protection scenario was greater than that under the natural development scenario. The degree of habitat degradation increased and then decreased from 2000 to 2030, showed a spatial distribution from weak to strong circles from the center outwards, with the most degraded areas located at the edges of grassland adjacent to unused land—the areas most affected by human activities. 【Conclusion】 The habitat quality of the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve is developing in a positive direction; the habitat quality under the future ecological protection scenario is significantly better than that under the natural development scenario; strengthening the protection of ecological land such as woodland and grassland is conducive to the improvement of habitat quality.

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habitat quality / land use / PLUS model / InVEST model / the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve

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ZHANG Ying , WANG Ranghui , LIU Chunwei , et al. Simulation and prediction of habitat quality in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2024, 48(3): 135-144 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202211025

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