Prediction of the spatiotemporal evolution of county habitat quality under multi-scenario simulation: a case of Taoyuan County

YANG Yuping, CHEN Caihong, SHE Jiyun, LIN Chuxuan, XIAO Fen, CHEN Chulin

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6) : 201-209.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6) : 201-209. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212038

Prediction of the spatiotemporal evolution of county habitat quality under multi-scenario simulation: a case of Taoyuan County

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Abstract

【Objective】This study aims to explore the distribution patterns of habitat quality in county-level areas under different development scenarios to support regional ecological protection and socio-economic sustainable development.【Method】Using Taoyuan County as a case study, we applied the GeoSOS-FLUS model and the InVEST model to simulate the spatial-temporal evolution of land use and habitat quality under three scenarios: cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and economic construction scenario (ECS). We also analyzed the factors influencing spatial variations in habitat quality using Geographic Detectors.【Result】From 2000 to 2020, land use changes in Taoyuan County included a gradual decrease in grassland, cultivated land, and woodland, while construction land expanded continuously. Habitat quality declined, with a yearly increase in the proportion of low habitat quality areas. By 2035, the average habitat quality values under the three scenarios were ranked as follows: EPS (0.818 7)>CPS (0.817 9)>ECS (0.817 3). Under EPS, woodland area increased positively, the reduction in high habitat quality areas slowed, and ecological damage from construction land expansion was minimized. Under CPS, 28.07% of the area had low habitat quality. Under ECS, 2.07% of the area had low habitat quality, which showed a continuous increase. Topographic factors were the primary determinants of habitat quality distribution in Taoyuan County, followed by GDP and population density.【Conclusion】Future county development should consider optimizing the spatial layout of ecological land, promoting ecological agriculture, controlling construction land expansion, improving ecological stability, and advancing high-quality land space development.

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multi-scenario simulation / habitat quality / carbon storage / land use / GeoSOS-FLUS model / InVEST model / Taoyuan County of Hunan Province

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YANG Yuping , CHEN Caihong , SHE Jiyun , et al . Prediction of the spatiotemporal evolution of county habitat quality under multi-scenario simulation: a case of Taoyuan County[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2024, 48(6): 201-209 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212038

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