Prediction of the spatiotemporal evolution of county habitat quality under multi-scenario simulation: a case of Taoyuan County

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212038

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6): 201-209.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212038

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Prediction of the spatiotemporal evolution of county habitat quality under multi-scenario simulation: a case of Taoyuan County

YANG Yuping¹(), CHEN Caihong¹^,^*(), SHE Jiyun¹, LIN Chuxuan², XIAO Fen¹, CHEN Chulin³

1. School of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
2. College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
3. School of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China

Received:2022-12-28 Revised:2023-05-28 Online:2024-11-30 Published:2024-12-10
Contact: CHEN Caihong E-mail:yangyuping0130@163.com;chencaihong056@163.com

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】This study aims to explore the distribution patterns of habitat quality in county-level areas under different development scenarios to support regional ecological protection and socio-economic sustainable development.【Method】Using Taoyuan County as a case study, we applied the GeoSOS-FLUS model and the InVEST model to simulate the spatial-temporal evolution of land use and habitat quality under three scenarios: cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and economic construction scenario (ECS). We also analyzed the factors influencing spatial variations in habitat quality using Geographic Detectors.【Result】From 2000 to 2020, land use changes in Taoyuan County included a gradual decrease in grassland, cultivated land, and woodland, while construction land expanded continuously. Habitat quality declined, with a yearly increase in the proportion of low habitat quality areas. By 2035, the average habitat quality values under the three scenarios were ranked as follows: EPS (0.818 7)>CPS (0.817 9)>ECS (0.817 3). Under EPS, woodland area increased positively, the reduction in high habitat quality areas slowed, and ecological damage from construction land expansion was minimized. Under CPS, 28.07% of the area had low habitat quality. Under ECS, 2.07% of the area had low habitat quality, which showed a continuous increase. Topographic factors were the primary determinants of habitat quality distribution in Taoyuan County, followed by GDP and population density.【Conclusion】Future county development should consider optimizing the spatial layout of ecological land, promoting ecological agriculture, controlling construction land expansion, improving ecological stability, and advancing high-quality land space development.

Key words: multi-scenario simulation, habitat quality, carbon storage, land use, GeoSOS-FLUS model, InVEST model, Taoyuan County of Hunan Province

CLC Number:

F301.2
X826

YANG Yuping, CHEN Caihong, SHE Jiyun, LIN Chuxuan, XIAO Fen, CHEN Chulin. Prediction of the spatiotemporal evolution of county habitat quality under multi-scenario simulation: a case of Taoyuan County[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2024, 48(6): 201-209.

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References 36

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情景 scenarios	各地类权重weight of land use type
情景 scenarios	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	Ⅵ
耕地保护情景CPS	1.0	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.6	0.2
生态保护情景EPS	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.2	0.2
经济建设情景ECS	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.8	0.2

地类 land use type	耕地保护情景CPS						生态保护情景EPS						经济建设情景ECS
地类 land use type	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	Ⅵ	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	Ⅵ	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ	Ⅵ
Ⅰ	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Ⅱ	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	1
Ⅲ	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
Ⅳ	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1
Ⅴ	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Ⅵ	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

威胁因子 threat factor	最大影响距离/km max_distance	权重 weight	模型 modle
耕地cultivated land	4	0.6	线性
道路road	3	0.6	线性
城镇用地town land	8	1.0	指数

地类 land use type	生境适宜度 habitat-like suitability	耕地 cultivated land	道路 roads	城镇用地 town land
林地woodland	1.00	0.70	0.60	0.70
草地meadow	0.70	0.50	0.35	0.60
耕地cultivated land	0.50	0.30	0.30	0.50
水域water body	0.90	0.70	0.60	0.80
建设用地construction land	0	0	0	0
未利用地unused land	0.30	0.10	0.10	0.20

2000	2020
2000	草地 meadow	耕地 cultivated land	建设用地 construction land	林地 woodland	水域 waterbody	未利用地 unused land	总计 total	转出总计 roll-out total
草地meadow	11 159.10	165.87	26.91	1 052.10	53.10	0	12 457.08	1 297.98
耕地cultivated land	153.81	119 213.91	2 421.63	5 622.30	1 242.90	0.09	128 654.64	9 440.73
建设用地construction land	0.90	489.24	3 281.94	90.90	51.30	0.00	3 914.28	632.34
林地woodland	518.13	5 199.30	1 578.33	281 312.37	720.63	1.80	289 330.56	8 018.19
水域water body	35.37	473.31	75.06	546.66	8 691.21	0.90	9 822.51	1 131.30
未利用地unused land	0	0	0	1.35	0.45	53.10	54.90	1.80
转入总计roll-in totals	708.21	6 327.72	4 101.93	7 313.31	2 068.38	2.79		20 522.34
总计total	11 867.31	125 541.63	7 383.87	288 625.68	10 759.59	55.89	444 233.97	-

Prediction of the spatiotemporal evolution of county habitat quality under multi-scenario simulation: a case of Taoyuan County

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生境质量等级 habitat quality grade	2000年		2010年		2020年
生境质量等级 habitat quality grade	面积/hm² area	比例/% proportion	面积/hm² area	比例/% proportion	面积/hm² area	比例/% proportion
低low	3 933.39	0.89	5 917.22	1.33	7 408.44	1.67
较低lower	128 671.27	28.96	126 627.70	28.50	125 551.50	28.26
中等medium	12 453.91	2.80	12 136.51	2.73	11 860.56	2.67
较高higher	53 111.85	11.96	54 097.80	12.18	52 005.44	11.71
高high	246 063.56	55.39	245 454.74	55.25	247 408.02	55.69

生境等级 habitat level	生态保护情景EPS	耕地保护情景CPS	经济建设情景ECS
低low	1.94	1.90	2.07
较低lower	27.95	28.07	28.00
中等medium	2.67	2.62	2.60
较高higher	12.50	12.56	12.49
高high	54.94	54.77	54.85

因子 factor	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈
X₁	0.332 6
X₂	0.403 0	0.274 9
X₃	0.375 1	0.362 8^*	0.087 6
X₄	0.346 4	0.350 7	0.306 3	0.232 8
X₅	0.352 3^*	0.301 9^*	0.149 1^*	0.268 7^*	0.016 6
X₆	0.353 9^*	0.309 3	0.203 9	0.261 8	0.125 8^*	0.072 2
X₇	0.421 0	0.401 3	0.354 3	0.367 7	0.314 0^*	0.318 6	0.280 6
X₈	0.430 6	0.409 6	0.367 4	0.376 7	0.330 9^*	0.340 0	0.302 3	0.294 8

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[3]	ZHAO Zhiqiang, FANG Hao, YUAN Qing, WU Yan. Research on the construction of ecological corridor habitat network in Songhua River [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2024, 48(4): 261-270.
[4]	ZHANG Ying, WANG Ranghui, LIU Chunwei, ZHOU Limin. Simulation and prediction of habitat quality in the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2024, 48(3): 135-144.
[5]	ZHANG Jiamin, LIU Xiaoyan, DENG Yi, FENG Yao, ZHU Bin, CHU Lei, ZHANG Zengxin. Changing features and influencing factors of small and micro wetlands in Wuxi City [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2024, 48(2): 27-36.
[6]	LUAN Chunfeng, GUO Xinran. Research on land use conflict identification from the perspective of ecological security pattern [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(5): 156-164.
[7]	LIANG Zi’ao, WANG Xiangfu, WANG Weifeng, YAN Ke, LI Yuanhui, DONG Wenting, WANG Rongnü. Evaluation of soil conservation benefit of the Natural Forest Protection Project in Qinghai Province [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(5): 181-188.
[8]	FAN Boqing, LIU Dongyun, WANG Siyuan, Muhammad·Amir·Siddique . Spatio-temporal evolution of surface temperature in urban green space: a case study within the Sixth Ring Road in Beijing [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(5): 197-204.
[9]	LI Changai, LIU Ling, QIU Bing, NI Cunming, NING Lili, LI Yaliang, WANG Hui, LIU Xingyu, YANG Suhui. Spatial-temporal change and driving factors of land use/cover in Anhui Province [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(5): 213-223.
[10]	YANG Yuping, HU Wenmin, JIA Guanyu, LI Guo, LI Yi. Scenario simulation integrating the ANN-CA model with the InVEST model to investigate land-based carbon storage in the Dongting Lake area [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(4): 175-184.
[11]	SHEN Hao, JIANG Jiang, ZHOU Chen, PAN Qingquan. Research on factors driving carbon storage in broad-leaved forests of different origins from Shicheng, Jiangxi Province [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(4): 185-190.
[12]	QI Liping, LUAN Zhaoqing, WEI Mian, YAN Dandan, LI Jingtai, YAO Xiuying, LIU Yao, XIE Siying, SHENG Yufeng. Spatial and temporal variations of ecosystem service values in Jiangsu Province based on land-use change [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(4): 200-208.
[13]	ZHU Zhihong, ZHOU Benzhi, WANG Yixiang, QI Jun, LI Aibo, HUANG Runxia. Spatio-temporal variations and influencing factors of water yield in the Thousand-Island Lake basin in the past 30 years [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(3): 111-119.
[14]	ZHANG Yucheng, HAN Nianlong, HU Ke, YU Miao, LI Xingqiang. The impact of land-use changes on the spatio-temporal variation of carbon storage in the central mountainous area of Hainan Island [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(2): 115-122.
[15]	WANG Dawei, SHEN Wenxing. The carbon storage calaulation and carbon sequestration potential analysis of the main artificial arboreal forest in China [J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2022, 46(5): 11-19.