Estimation of habitat suitability and climatic distribution change of Pegaeophyton scapiflorum based on the MaxEnt model

LI Ruilan, FAN Jinya, ZHAO Qian, LI Tingju, WANG Chenghui, DING Rong, GU Rui, ZHONG Shihong

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (5) : 173-180.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (5) : 173-180. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202302003

Estimation of habitat suitability and climatic distribution change of Pegaeophyton scapiflorum based on the MaxEnt model

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Abstract

【Objective】 Pegaeophyton scapiflorum can be found mainly in the high altitudes of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in China, and the traditional surveys are difficult to implement. This study explored the dominant climatic factors that limit the distribution of P. scapiflorum in China and simulated its suitable distribution areas. The goal was to provide a theoretical basis for the investigation and protection of wild resources of P. scapiflorum. 【Method】 This study was based on 88 distribution sites and eight environmental factor variables of P. scapiflorum in China. The MaxEnt model was employed to predict the changes in its potential habitat. Additionally, the possible influence of climatic change under the extremely pessimistic representative concentration pathways scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the 2050s and 2070s were estimated. A comprehensive analysis of the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of P. scapiflorum was conducted. 【Result】 (1) The prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model was high, and the AUC was 0.887. The prediction showed that P. scapiflorum is mainly located in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau currently. The highly suitable areas were mainly distributed in the Kailas Range, Himalayas, southern valley of Xizang, Qaidam Basin, Nyainqêntanglha Mountains, Tanggula Mountains, the southern section of the Aemye Ma-chhen Range, the northern part of the Songpan-Ganzi Plateau, and Hengduan Mountain. The total suitable area of the potential geographical distribution of P. scapiflorum was approximately 310 × 104 km2, including 80.81 × 104 km2 of highly suitable areas. (2) The main environmental factor variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. scapiflorum were geomorphology, temperature, and precipitation, among which dem, isothermality, and annual precipitation aere the key environmental factors. (3) Under different climate change models, the suitable habitat will be reduced by 24%-28% compared with the present situation by 2050s and 2070s. The highly suitable area would be downgraded to the medium or low suitable area to significantly reduce or even disappear, and the distribution center of P. scapiflorum tended to migrate to the westward and higher altitudes. 【Conclusion】 Study results are an important reference for the conservation, sustainable development, and utilization of wild resources and artificial cultivation of P. scapiflorum.

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wild plant resources / Pegaeophyton scapiflorum / maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model / the potential distribution / Qihai-Xizang Plateau

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LI Ruilan , FAN Jinya , ZHAO Qian , et al . Estimation of habitat suitability and climatic distribution change of Pegaeophyton scapiflorum based on the MaxEnt model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2024, 48(5): 173-180 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202302003

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