Potential geographical distribution and leading environmental factors of Myricaria wardii, an endemic species of the Xizang river valleys

WANG Junwei, Deji , WEI Boning, CHANG Zihui, Laqiong

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3) : 220-226.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3) : 220-226. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202303037

Potential geographical distribution and leading environmental factors of Myricaria wardii, an endemic species of the Xizang river valleys

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Abstract

【Objective】Myricaria wardii is an erect shrub of the genus Myricaria in the family Tamaricaceae, endemic to the sandy areas of Xizang rivers and beaches, and has important ecological and economic values. The potential geographical distribution and dominant environmental factors of M. wardii at present and in the future (2050s, 2070s) were predicted and analyzed to provide theoretical references for scientific conservation and rational exploitation of M. wardii.【Method】27 actual geographical distribution points of M. wardii were obtained through field surveys, and the potential suitable distribution areas of M. wardii in Xizang under different climatic scenarios at different times were predicted and the area was calculated with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS softwares to explore the dominant environmental factors affecting the natural distribution of M. wardii.【Result】The MaxEnt model predicted very good results with a mean AUC of 0.953. Currently, the M. wardii are mainly distributed in the Nianchu River Basin, Lhasa River Basin, Niyang River Basin and Parlung Zangbo River Basin. Precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), temperature seasonality (Bio4), min temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), and slope (Slo) contributed 88.2% cumulatively to the model and were the main environmental variables influencing the distribution of M. wardii. The potential distribution area of M. wardii for each fitness class increased at two carbon emission concentrations (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5), and the potential fitness area of M. wardii spread faster at the maximum carbon emission concentration (RCP 8.5). Compared with the current potential distribution area, the distribution centers of M. wardii mainly spread southeast to northwest along the major river basins in Xizang.【Conclusion】The MaxEnt model can accurately predict the potential suitable areas for M. wardii, with the Nianchu River Basin and Lhasa River basin in central Xizang; and the Niyang River basin and Parlung Zangbo River basin in southeast Xizang as the concentrated distribution areas. With the intensification of climate warming, the area of the suitable areas is expanding, and the distribution center is moving and spreading in a southeast to northwest direction.

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Myricaria wardii / MaxEnt / environmental factor / geographical distribution

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WANG Junwei , Deji , WEI Boning , et al . Potential geographical distribution and leading environmental factors of Myricaria wardii, an endemic species of the Xizang river valleys[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2025, 49(3): 220-226 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202303037

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