The dynamic effects of the Sloping Land Conversion to Forests Program on grain production in China

LIU Can, LIU Hao, ZHU Wenqing, WANG Yanbin, ZHANG Han

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (1) : 1-10.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (1) : 1-10. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202307028

The dynamic effects of the Sloping Land Conversion to Forests Program on grain production in China

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Abstract

【Objective】The issue of food security in China has received significant attention. It should be estimated whether the Sloping Land Conversion to Forests Program (SLCP) has substantially impacted grain production in China, and policy implications should be provided to maintain the achievement of this program.【Method】A System-GMM model is employed to estimate the dynamic effects of the SLCP on grain production, using samples from 31 provinces and 5 223 rural households across 171 administrative villages in 72 townships, 15 counties of six provinces. The food production behaviors of the sample households are estimated using a fixed-effect model. 【Result】The SLCP slightly and significantly reduces the grain production in the local provinces and grain sowing area of the sample households, with variations by years, crop species, and regions. However, when considering the dynamic impacts of the SLCP on household grain production, along with the additional ecosystem services and food supplies generated from newly added forests by the SLCP, the effect on grain production becomes insignificantly. 【Conclusion】The SLCP had no significantly negative impact on China’s grain security, and follow-up policy adjustments should be made based on zoning and classification.

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Sloping Land Conversion to Forests Program(SLCP) / grain production / ecosystem service / rural household

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LIU Can , LIU Hao , ZHU Wenqing , et al . The dynamic effects of the Sloping Land Conversion to Forests Program on grain production in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2025, 49(1): 1-10 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202307028

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