Prediction of potential suitable areas of Rhododendron micranthum under different climate scenarios

FENG Xiao, CHEN Feifei, YANG Junli, LIU Hailong, TANG Yuhong, LI Jinfeng, SHI Xiaodeng, JIA Zhongkui, YIN Qun

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (4) : 161-169.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (4) : 161-169. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202309011

Prediction of potential suitable areas of Rhododendron micranthum under different climate scenarios

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Abstract

【Objective】This study is dedicated to explore the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of Rhododendron micranthum and predicting its potential geographical distribution under future climate change scenarios in China. The findings aim to support urban greening strategies for winter vegetation-deficient cities and provide scientific guidance for species conservation and management of R. micranthum.【Method】R. micranthum was taken as the research object. Based on 182 distribution points and 34 environmental factors, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, optimized by the R language kuenm software package, were utilized to predict the potential suitable areas. The main environmental variables influencing its geographical distribution were analyzed. Additionally, the spatial distribution patterns and centroid change trends of potential suitable areas in the 2030s (2021-2040), 2050s (2041-2060), and 2070s (2061-2080) under three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were predicted.【Result】(1) When the optimal model parameters are set as RM = 2.9 and FC = LQPTH, the model achieves the highest prediction accuracy (AUC value is 0.973 2 ± 0.007 1).(2) The primary environmental variables and their corresponding thresholds that impact the distribution of suitable areas for R. micranthum are the lowest temperature of the coldest month, ranging from -13.48 ℃ to 1.02 ℃, and the rainfall during the hottest season, varying between 270.12 mm and 404.76 mm. Within the threshold ranges of these environmental variables, R. micranthum demonstrates a certain level of habitability.(3) Under the current climate conditions, the areas with high, medium, and low suitability for R. micranthum are 43.83×104, 43.79×104, and 62.01×104 km2, respectively. These areas are predominantly located in regions such as Beijing, Gansu, Shannxi, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Liaoning, and Sichuan. Among them, Beijing has the highest average suitability index, which is 0.801 5.(4) Under future scenarios, higher emission intensities reduced total suitable areas, indicating global warming may hinder R. micranthum growth. Meanwhile, under the SSP126 (low-forcing scenario), the centroid of the suitable areas migrates towards lower latitudes, while under the SSP585 (high-forcing scenario), it migrates towards higher latitudes.【Conclusion】The analysis using the MaxEnt model yields reliable results for predicting the potential distribution of R. micranthum at different stages. In future climate scenarios, the fragmentation degree of suitable areas for R. micranthum in China is expected to increase. Climate conditions associated with low greenhouse gas concentration emissions are favorable for the growth of R. micranthum, whereas those under high greenhouse gas concentration emissions lead to a reduction in its suitable areas.

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Rhododendron micranthum / potential suitable distribution / MaxEnt model / climate change

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FENG Xiao , CHEN Feifei , YANG Junli , et al . Prediction of potential suitable areas of Rhododendron micranthum under different climate scenarios[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2025, 49(4): 161-169 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202309011

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