Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of carbon storage around Hangzhou Bay based on InVEST-PLUS-GeoDectetor model

SUN Yanchao, CAI Jun, WANG Zihao, TIAN Fengya, LI Tianlong

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (5) : 19-28.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (5) : 19-28. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312009

Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of carbon storage around Hangzhou Bay based on InVEST-PLUS-GeoDectetor model

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Abstract

【Objective】Against the backdrop of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, this study delves into the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of land-use changes and carbon storage. The aim of this study is to offer insights for future regional carbon balance, the optimization of the internal land-use structure, and the sustainable social-economic development around Hangzhou Bay.【Method】Taking the Hangzhou Bay area as a case study, by leveraging the InVEST and PLUS models, this paper assessed the impacts of land use on the alterations in carbon storage and the vulnerability of ecosystem carbon storage services from 1980 to 2020. The GeoDectetor model was utilized to analyze the driving factors behind the differentiation and changes in carbon storage, and forecasted the land-use patterns and changes in carbon storage under multiple scenarios in 2030.【Result】(1) Cultivated land and forest land were the predominant land types around Hangzhou Bay. Over the past nearly 40 years, the overall land-use intensity increased by 10.35 units. The land usage remained at a medium-development level and demonstrated a year-on-year upward trend. Meanwhile, the total carbon storage in the study area generally exhibited a pattern of first increasing and then decreasing. From 1980 to 2000, it was predominantly a carbon sink, while from 2000 to 2020, it turned into a carbon source. (2) The single factor detection revealed that the differentiation and changes in carbon storage were mainly and significantly influenced by natural factors such as slope. The two-factor interaction detection indicated that the changes in carbon storage resulted from the combined effects of multiple factors. Besides being affected by natural factors, human factors also impeded the growth of vegetation coverage, ultimately influencing the distribution of regional carbon storage. (3) Under the three scenarios in 2030, with the exception of an increase under future ecological protection scenario, the other two scenarios showed varying degrees of decline. This implied that in the future, under the ecological protection scenario, the effective conservation of ecological land had a substantially higher impact on the stability of carbon storage compared to the natural development scenario and the economic growth scenario.【Conclusion】The land use around Hangzhou Bay under future ecological protection scenario can comprehensively coordinate the functions of diverse land types, decelerate the loss of carbon storage, and is of great significance for the optimization of the regional territorial space.

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carbon storage / land use / multi-scenario forecast / GeoDetector / around Hangzhou Bay

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SUN Yanchao , CAI Jun , WANG Zihao , et al . Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of carbon storage around Hangzhou Bay based on InVEST-PLUS-GeoDectetor model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2025, 49(5): 19-28 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312009

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