【Objective】This research aims to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use dynamics and ecosystem services in the central China river basins, and provide a scientific basis for ecological environment protection and territorial space planning in major grain-producing regions.【Method】Based on land use changes in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River basin from 2000 to 2020, this study employed models such as InVEST and PLUS to explore the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of land use and ecosystem services under different scenarios in the past and future of the basin.【Result】(1) From 2000 to 2020, the basin experienced rapid cultivated land reduction and continuous construction land expansion. By 2035, under the natural development scenario, construction land expanded rapidly, encroaching on cultivated, grassland, and forest land. However, under cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios, construction land expansion was curbed, effectively preserving cultivated and forest land. (2) During 2000-2020, water yield and soil conservation increased, while carbon storage and habitat quality decreased. High-value areas for carbon storage, habitat quality, and soil conservation were found in the basin’s east-central and southeastern forests, whereas low-value areas were in the south-central construction land. Water yield exhibited an opposite spatial pattern, decreasing with increasing topographic gradient. (3) The ecological protection scenario yielded the greatest ecosystem service improvements and is suitable for future development.【Conclusion】The ecological protection scenario offers decision-making support for ecological protection and land development in the basin’s upper reaches. Future efforts should focus on resolving construction land-cultivated land conflicts and optimizing territorial space development strategies to promote land use structure transformation toward high ecosystem service provision.