Evolution of optimal forest rotation period methodology considering the uncertainties of price, preference, and catastrophic events

WANG Xiaowen, GENG Aixin, YU Zhihan, YANG Hongqiang

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (5) : 267-278.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (5) : 267-278. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202405013

Evolution of optimal forest rotation period methodology considering the uncertainties of price, preference, and catastrophic events

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Abstract

【Objective】Market price, decision-maker preferences, and natural disasters constitute three major uncertainties affecting sustainable forest management. Advancing methodologies for determining optimal forest rotation periods under these uncertainties is a critical scientific issue that needs to be addressed. Resolving this can provide nature-based solutions in sustainable forestry mauagement and addressing climate change. 【Method】This study revisits the classical Faustmann model and its evolution, exposes its limitations in the applications of sustainable forest management and synthesizes methodological advancements in optimal rotation period determination. 【Result】(1) Real options analysis enhances flexibility in forest land valuation, while dynamic programming serves as the primary analytical tool for optimal rotation decisions under uncertainty. Selecting appropriate price models based on market characteristics and historical data improves decision accuracy.(2) Preferences of both policymakers and forest managers significantly influence optimal rotation periods. Policy uncertainty leads forest managers to tend toward earlier harvesting, while the individual risk preferences shape strategies against price fluctuations. The Pressler indicator offers an effective ex-ante decision-making approach incorporating risk expectations.(3) Natural disasters disrupt timber volume growth and accelerate carbon release from the carbon sequestration capacity of forests. Managers shorten rotations to minimize losses. Penalizing disaster-induced carbon emissions can incentivize managers to internalize disaster risks, reducing both frequency and severity of impacts. 【Conclusion】This study establishes a methodological framework addressing multidimensional uncertainties through integrated real options, dynamic programming, and risk preference quantification tools, overcoming static limitations of traditional models. Future research should: develop dynamic price-policy-disaster coupling model; create AI-based multi-objective optimization systems; and design carbon penalty mechanisms to align the aligmment of ecological-economic goals decision support for climate-smart forest management.

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optimal rotation period / Faustmann model / market price / decision-maker preference / natural catastrophic events / sustainable forest management

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WANG Xiaowen , GENG Aixin , YU Zhihan , et al. Evolution of optimal forest rotation period methodology considering the uncertainties of price, preference, and catastrophic events[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2025, 49(5): 267-278 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202405013

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CREAMER S F, GENZ A, BLATNER K A. The effect of fire risk on the critical harvesting times for Pacific northwest Douglas-fir when carbon price is stochastic[J]. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 2012, 41(3):313-326.DOI: 10.1017/s1068280500001283.
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