Simulation and multi-scenario prediction of land use change in the urban belt of Wanjiang River based on the PLUS model

GAO Chang, GUO Weiling, XU Liuyang, JIA Ji’ang

Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (1) : 93-103.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (1) : 93-103. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202406055

Simulation and multi-scenario prediction of land use change in the urban belt of Wanjiang River based on the PLUS model

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Abstract

【Objective】 As a critical strategic area for promoting integrated economic development in the Yangtze River Delta and the rise of the central region, it is of great significance to explore the rational deployment of land use resources and achieve coordinated development of regional ecology and economic growth in the Wanjiang urban belt.【Method】Four scenarios, natural development, arable land protection, ecological protection, and rapid development, were established to simulate land use in the Wanjiang urban belt by 2030 and analyzed land use changes under various development goals. These scenarios utilized the patch-generating land use simulation model, intensity map model, and land use transfer matrix. Eighteen driving factors were selected based on these models to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of land use changes and driving forces in the Wanjiang urban belt from 2000 to 2020, considering natural and socio-economic factors.【Result】The findings indicated that: (1) cropland and forest land, constituting nearly 90% of the total area, were the predominant land use types in the Wanjiang urban belt. Construction land area expanded rapidly while cropland and grassland areas steadily declined, resulting in stable land use changes from 2000 to 2020. The single-movement rate of construction land was high, at 14.30%, with its greatest comprehensive dynamic degree observed between 2000 and 2005, at 0.36%. (2) The PLUS model accurately simulated land use in 2020 during the five year interval from 2010 to 2015, achieving 94.84% total accuracy with the highest Kappa coefficient of 91.24%. (3) From 2000 to 2020, factors such as night lighting, proximity to major roads, and distance from rural areas predominantly drove construction land expansion, while natural and socio-economic factors drove expansion of other land use types. (4) Significant differences in land use changes were observed among the scenarios. The ecological protection scenario balanced ecological development and economic construction by expanding construction land while preserving ecological land. It presented innovative concepts for advancing sustainable development in the Wanjiang urban belt. 【Conclusion】Land use changes in the Wanjiang urban belt remained stable over 20 years, with the ecological protection scenario emerging as the preferred approach for guiding future land use decisions and management in the region.

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patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model / Wanjiang urban belt / land use change / multi-scenario simulation / driving factors

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GAO Chang , GUO Weiling , XU Liuyang , et al. Simulation and multi-scenario prediction of land use change in the urban belt of Wanjiang River based on the PLUS model[J]. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition）. 2026, 50(1): 93-103 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202406055

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