Changes of supply-demand relationship pattern of carbon sequestration services and its driving factors in the Shan-Shui Initiative in the source of Qiantang River in China

XU Caiyao, CUI Mingye, XU Wenjing, REN Yan, KONG Fanbin

Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (3) : 90-100.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (3) : 90-100. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202409026

Changes of supply-demand relationship pattern of carbon sequestration services and its driving factors in the Shan-Shui Initiative in the source of Qiantang River in China

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Abstract

【Objective】Enhancing carbon sequestration and sink capacity is a critical pathway for ecosystems to mitigate global warming. Quantifying the supply and demand of ecosystem carbon sequestration services (ECSS) and their spatial relationships, along with identifying the drivers of their dynamics, provides an essential foundation for formulating and optimizing region-specific carbon-neutral solutions based on ecological protection and restoration projects.【Method】This study targeted the Qiantang River source region integrated protection and restoration project of mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes and grasslands (referred to as the Qiantang River source “Shan-Shui Initiative”) in Zhejiang Province. Using quantitative analytical models, we systematically assessed the spatiotemporal patterns, spatial heterogeneity, and driving factors of ECSS supply-demand relationships in the project area.【Result】(1) The ECSS supply in the Qiantang River “Shan-Shui Initiative” area exceeded demand. In 2020, the ECSS supply reached 13.72 Mt, reflecting a 9.1% increase compared to 2010, with a spatial distribution characterized by “higher values in central-western regions and lower values in the east”. Conversely, the ECSS demand in 2020 was 2.87 Mt, marking a 24.2% rise from 2010. The supply-demand ratio (SDR) of ECSS consistently exhibited a surplus state across most of the study area. (2) The drivers of ECSS supply-demand dynamics displayed significant spatial heterogeneity. GDP per capita, population density, annual mean air temperature, the proportion of secondary industry, and the coverage of urban construction land exerted statistically significant negative effects on the ECSS supply-demand relationship. In contrast, the proportion of forest area demonstrated a pronounced positive effect.【Conclusion】This study elucidates the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of ECSS supply-demand patterns in national key ecological function zones under engineered interventions. The findings offer a scientific basis for optimizing the planning and sustainable management of ecosystem carbon sequestration services through the implementation of the “Shan-Shui Initiative.”

Key words

ecosystem carbon sequestration services / supply-demand relationship pattern / driving factors / Qiantang River source region / geographically weighted regression model

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XU Caiyao , CUI Mingye , XU Wenjing , et al . Changes of supply-demand relationship pattern of carbon sequestration services and its driving factors in the Shan-Shui Initiative in the source of Qiantang River in China[J]. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition）. 2026, 50(3): 90-100 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202409026

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