Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of water yield in the Ulansuhai Nur basin

LI Qing, RAO Liangyi, LIU Pengkai

Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (2) : 251-260.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (2) : 251-260. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202409040

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of water yield in the Ulansuhai Nur basin

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Abstract

【Objective】Based on precipitation, climate, land use/cover change (LUCC), soil and other data from 2000 to 2020 in the Ulansuhai Nur basin, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of water yield and revealed their driving factors, aiming to provide a scientific basis for formulating rational water resource protection and utilization policies.【Method】The water yield module of the InVEST model was employed to simulate water yield during five periods (from 2000 to 2020) in the Ulansuhai Nur basin. The geographical detector model (GDM) was used to analyze the explanatory power of various factors on the spatial differentiation of water yield changes, while multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) was applied to examine the localized influence of driving factors across different geographical locations.【Result】During the study period, the water yield in the Ulansuhai Nur basin showed an increasing trend, with a spatial distribution pattern of “lower in the west and higher in the east”, which was consistent with the temporal trend and spatial distribution of precipitation. Evapotranspiration levels exhibited minor fluctuations overall. LUCC trends were characterized by a reduction in the proportion of grassland and unused land. GDM results indicated significant differences in the explanatory power of various factors on water yield spatial differentiation, with elevation, soil, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) identified as the dominant factors. MGWR simulations revealed that climatic factors and soil showed negative effects on water yield, while other factors showed positive effects. Precipitation, elevation, and NDVI had stronger influences, with significant spatial heterogeneity observed across all factors.【Conclusion】Changes in water yield resulted from the combined effects of multiple factors. For future ecological conservation efforts in the Ulansuhai Nur basin, comprehensive consideration of the impacts of topography, climate, and changes in human activities on water yield services is essential.

Key words

InVEST model / geographical detector / multiscale geographically weighted regression / water yield / spatial differentiation / Ulansuhai Nur basin

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LI Qing , RAO Liangyi , LIU Pengkai. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of water yield in the Ulansuhai Nur basin[J]. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition）. 2026, 50(2): 251-260 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202409040

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