System dynamics simulation of China’s high-quality forestry development under multi-policy combination

XIE Yu, ZHANG Yutong, ZHANG Zhiguang

Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (1) : 263-273.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (1) : 263-273. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202410008

System dynamics simulation of China’s high-quality forestry development under multi-policy combination

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Abstract

【Objective】 The internal mechanism of the high-quality forestry development system is complex, and it is necessary to strengthen the construction of the policy system for high-quality forestry development through the optimized configuration of different policy combinations to cope with the coordination requirements of high-quality forestry development for multiple economic, ecological and social goals. 【Method】Based on the new development philosophy, a simulation model of high-quality forestry development system was constructed from four dimensions: scientific and technological innovation, industrial coordination, people’s livelihood and green development. The high-quality development level of China’s forestry from 2021 to 2035 was simulated under four policy-oriented scenarios. 【Result】(1) China’s forestry high-quality development will reach a medium-high level, and can even reach a high level under certain policy combinations in 2035. (2) The development potential of the scenario of scientific and technological innovation priority under the implementation of a single policy is the best. (3) The development potential of combined policies is better than that of single policies. (4) As the number of policies accumulates, the marginal effect decreases. 【Conclusion】Based on priority, technological innovation and green development should be the focus of current policy implementation, while industrial restructuring and the improvement of people’s well-being should be pursued as long-term objectives. Promote the implementation of integrated policies involving multiple departments to enhance the level of high-quality forestry development. Policymakers should coordinate at the macro level to avoid the duplication or conflict of multiple policies.

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high-quality forestry development / system dynamics / multi-scenario simulation / policy simulation

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XIE Yu , ZHANG Yutong , ZHANG Zhiguang. System dynamics simulation of China’s high-quality forestry development under multi-policy combination[J]. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition）. 2026, 50(1): 263-273 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202410008

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