Analysis of the occurrence regularity of adult Hyphantria cunea in Nanjing

YOU Linlin, DENG Yadi, XI Yueming, DAI Wei, LIU Hejia

Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (3) : 239-246.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (3) : 239-246. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202410032

Analysis of the occurrence regularity of adult Hyphantria cunea in Nanjing

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Abstract

【Objective】This study aims to elucidate the occurrence regularity and spatial population distribution of adult Hyphantria cunea in Nanjing，in order to provide a scientific basis for its prevention and control.【Method】From 2019 to 2022，adult H. cunea were monitored annually using sex pheromone traps between April 1st and September 15th each year. The number of adults captured at each monitoring site was recorded to analyze interannual occurrence trends. The geostatistical method was applied to characterize the spatial distribution patterns of H. cunea across the study area. Semivariogram model parameters were calculated with the Autocorrelation tool in GS+ 9.0 software. Based on trap counts，monitoring sites were classified into eight density grades： 3-5，6-10，11-20，21-30，31-50，51-70，71-100，and >100 adults. Spatial distribution maps were generated using ArcGIS software. For each generation，the initial emergence，peak-start，peak，peak-end，and termination periods were determined. The STDEV function was used to compute theoretical interval values between the occurrence phases of adult H. cunea.【Result】From 2019 to 2021，adult catches showed a year-on-year increasing trend，followed by a decline in 2022. In Nanjing，H. cunea completes three generations per year. The overwintering generation exhibited the highest population abundance，with two developmental peaks，followed by the first generation； the second generation had the smallest population size. Adults of H. cunea were widely distributed across most parts of Nanjing，displaying an aggregated spatial distribution pattern. High-suitability areas for H. cunea included central urban zones，regions along major transportation corridors，areas adjacent to scenic spots，and neighborhoods surrounding water bodies. The average interval values between successive occurrence phases—from the initial emergence of the overwintering generation to the termination of the second generation—were 12.75，7.00，8.50，7.75，28.75，11.25，6.00，6.25，11.75，17.00，5.00，4.75，7.00 and 14.25 days，respectively.【Conclusion】H. cunea in Nanjing reproduces three generations annually. However，as the occurrence periods continue to advance，the potential for the emergence of a partial fourth generation is increasing. The spatial distribution of H. cunea is clustered，with high-suitability areas concentrated in central urban districts，transportation corridors，scenic spots，and riparian zones.

Key words

Hyphantria cunea / occurrence regularity / geostatistics / population distribution / Nanjing

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YOU Linlin , DENG Yadi , XI Yueming , et al . Analysis of the occurrence regularity of adult Hyphantria cunea in Nanjing[J]. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition）. 2026, 50(3): 239-246 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202410032

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