Habitat suitability evaluation and ecological carrying capacity estimation of milu (Elaphurus davidianus)

Zhang Xian, Wu Yongbo, Xue Jianhui, Wang Libo

Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition) ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (4) : 165-173.

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Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition) ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (4) : 165-173. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202501001

Habitat suitability evaluation and ecological carrying capacity estimation of milu (Elaphurus davidianus)

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Abstract

【Objective】This study evaluated the habitat suitability for milu(Elaphurus davidianus)and estimated its ecological capacity, aiming to provide a scientific basis for regulating milu population structure and restorating their habitat to better.【Method】Taking Dafeng Milu National Nature Reserve in Jiangsu Province as the research site, this study utilized high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology as an alternative to traditional line-transect and quadrat survey methods to collect milu occurrence points data and generate land-use classification maps. Ten habitat evaluation factors were selected, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine their weights. Using ArcGIS software for weighted overlay analysis, the summer habitat distribution map of milu across different suitability grades was generated. The summer ecological carrying capacity of milu was estimated by combining the area proportions of different habitat grades with the nutritional content of herbaceous plants.【Result】Milu population in the reserve are primarily identified in grassland and bareland near water sources in the eastern part of the first grade stocking area, as well as in areas adjacent to Cynodon dactylon community and bareland in the southern part of the third grade stocking area. Due to internal population transfers, fewer milu are observed in the second grade stocking area. Bareland is the dominant land-use type, covering 34.97% of the reserve, followed by woodland (25.63%), while construction land account for the smallest proportion (0.43%). Grassland collectively occupy 18.08%, with Phragmites australis community being the largest (6.50%). The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) for AHP-GIS model is 0.788 (> 0.75), confirming its applicability for evaluating summer habitat suitability. Suitable habitats (including high suitable, suitable, and low suitable habitats) are predominantly located in core areas encompassing water source, bareland, woodland, Phragmites australis community, and low grassland. High suitable habitats (about 235.87 hm2, 8.85% of the reserve) are concentrated in the northern part of the second grade core area and the central-southern part of the third grade core area. Low suitable habitats (about 965.09 hm2, 36.19%) represent the largest proportion; Unsuitable habitats (containing low unsuitable habitat and unsuitable habitat, about 862.17 hm2, 32.33% of the reserve) are mainly distributed in the western part of the first grade stocking area and the northern-central part of the third grade stocking area. The estimated summer spatial carrying capacity is approximately 894 individuals. Phragmites australis community exhibit the highest biomass (680.15 g/m2), Suaeda glauca have the highest crude protein (10.53%) and crude fat (3.07%) contents, and Pennisetum alopecuroides show the highest crude fiber content. The total energy provided by herbaceous plants is 2.856×109 kJ, corresponding to a nutritional carrying capacity of approximately 131 individuals.【Conclusion】The current population of milu in the reserve has reached 8 216 individuals, significantly exceeding the ecological carrying capacity; The translocation of a portion of milu from second grade core area to third grade core area, combined with vegetation restoration and the dredging of water systems, has yielded significant and positive outcomes. Future recommendations include enhancing the habitat suitability level for milu within the reserve, increasing the proportion of male milu to moderate population growth rates. Additionally, based on thorough research into potential habitat suitability areas, the establishment of new sub-population reserves will help alleviate the current ecological capacity pressure on the existing reserve.

Key words

habitat suitability / ecological carrying capacity / geographic information system (GIS) / analytic hierarchy process (AHP) / Dafeng Milu National Nature Reserve, Jiangsu Province

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Zhang Xian , Wu Yongbo , Xue Jianhui , et al. Habitat suitability evaluation and ecological carrying capacity estimation of milu (Elaphurus davidianus)[J]. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition). 2026, 50(4): 165-173 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202501001

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