【Objective】This study analyzed the potential impacts of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) on China’s forest product trade. The research aims to inform strategies for mitigating trade risks and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the forestry industry’s trade activities.【Method】The GTAP-E model was employed to forecast changes in China’s forest product trade under the CBAM framework. The analysis focuses on key dimensions including domestic output, imports, exports, and market structure.【Result】(1) From the production perspective, forest product output is projected to experience short-term growth in the initial phase of CBAM implementation. However, a contraction risk emerges across the entire industry chain in the long run, with higher value-added products facing greater downward pressure. (2) Regarding imports, forest product import demand may decline under CBAM. Imports of raw materials heavily reliant on land transportation are likely to encounter heightened risks. (3) On the export front, exports of primary forest products are forecast to decrease significantly. The resilience of the deep-processed products industry may, in turn, be constrained by low-value-added competition in emerging markets.【Conclusion】Policy responses should prioritize establishing a support system for high value-added forest products, constructing low-carbon supply chain networks for importing primary raw materials, implementing region-specific compliance certification and market adaptation mechanisms for forest products, and developing dual systems for the cyclic utilization of forestry residues and emergency supply.