Historical climate change shaped the geographical distribution pattern of Paeonia rockii

Wang Lei; Shi Yilong; Zhao Kexin; Wang Xu; Xu Yifan; Han Yue; Shen Yanmei; Hou Xiaogai

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202602017

Historical climate change shaped the geographical distribution pattern of Paeonia rockii

Wang Lei, Shi Yilong, Zhao Kexin, Wang Xu, Xu Yifan, Han Yue, Shen Yanmei, Hou Xiaogai

Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 0

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Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition） ›› 0 DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202602017

Historical climate change shaped the geographical distribution pattern of Paeonia rockii

Wang Lei¹, Shi Yilong¹, Zhao Kexin¹, Wang Xu¹, Xu Yifan¹, Han Yue¹, Shen Yanmei^1,2, Hou Xiaogai^1*

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Abstract

【Objective】To reveal the changing patterns of the suitable habitat areas of Paeonia rockii under different historical climate conditions, and to explore the main environmental factors influencing the distribution pattern of Paeonia rockii, thereby providing scientific basis for the protection, utilization, and introduction and cultivation of Paeonia rockii germplasm resources. 【Method】In this study, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used in combination with R software and ArcGIS analysis tools, along with geographical distribution data and climate data, to simulate the historical distribution pattern of Paeonia rockii in China from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the contemporary period (1960-1990). And investigate the main environmental driving factors that influence its distribution pattern.【Result】(1) Mean Daily Temperature of the Driest Quarter bio9, Annual Precipitation bio12, Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation, bio15) and Mean Daily Temperature of the Coldest Quarter bio11 are the most important environmental factors affecting the distribution pattern of Paeonia rockii, with their suitable ranges being: bio9 (-34 ~ 32 °C), bio12 (552 - 959 kg/（m^-2 ·month^-1）], bio15 (66 - 150 kg/m²), and bio11 (-36 - 30 °C). (2) The suitable area for Paeonia rockii shows a trend of "first decrease then increase" from the LGM to the contemporary climate scenario. (3) The center of the suitable area shows a continuous migration trend towards the northwest.【Conclusion】The results reveal that cold and arid climate scenarios facilitate the population expansion of Paeonia rockii, whereas under warm and humid climate scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Paeonia rockii exhibit a tendency to migrate and contract toward semi-arid regions at higher latitudes. The expansion and shrinkage of suitable habitats triggered by historical climate fluctuations represent an important historical cause for the current highly fragmented distribution pattern of wild Paeonia rockii populations.

Key words

Paeonia rockii / maximum entropy model / potential suitable habitat / last glacial maximum / Mid-Holocene

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Wang Lei, Shi Yilong, Zhao Kexin, Wang Xu, Xu Yifan, Han Yue, Shen Yanmei, Hou Xiaogai. Historical climate change shaped the geographical distribution pattern of Paeonia rockii[J]. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition）. 0 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202602017

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