Dynamic simulation of future ecosystem service value in Puding County, 
Guizhou Province based on CA-Markov model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201612022

Dynamic simulation of future ecosystem service value in Puding County, Guizhou Province based on CA-Markov model

LYU Guoping, LIAO Chengrui, XU Yannan, ZHANG Ting, LI Haidong

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (05) : 49-56.

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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (05) : 49-56. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201612022

Dynamic simulation of future ecosystem service value in Puding County, Guizhou Province based on CA-Markov model

LYU Guoping¹, LIAO Chengrui¹, XU Yannan^1*, ZHANG Ting¹, LI Haidong^2*

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Abstract

【Objective】Exploring the variations in land use and ecosystem service value in a typical Karst land area in Puding County plays an important role in the implementation of a “grain-for-green” restoration project.【Method】We determined land use/land cover and landscape patterns based on the classification results of a CART decision tree using “3S” technology. The ecological system services values for the period of 1999 to 2015 were estimated based on the ecological principles. Combined with a CA-Markov model, the land use pattern and ecological system services value of 2021 was predicted. 【Result】The ecological system services value steadily increased from 1999 to 2015. The forest, field and water landscape areas were the largest part of the ecological system services, collectively providing more than 90% of the total ecological system services value. Water conservation, soil formation and protection, and waste disposal were almost 50% of the total contribution to total land-use ecosystem service values.【Conclusion】The leading factor in the changes in ecological system service value in the study area was the grain-for-green project. Results of the forecast showed that the total ecological system services value of Puding County in 2021 would be 9.58 billion Yuan, a decrease of 0.3 billion Yuan compared to 2015.

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LYU Guoping, LIAO Chengrui, XU Yannan, ZHANG Ting, LI Haidong. Dynamic simulation of future ecosystem service value in Puding County, Guizhou Province based on CA-Markov model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2017, 41(05): 49-56 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201612022

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