Abstract
In this paper, a biogeographical modelBIOME4, was used to predict potential vegetation distribution in NorthSouth transect of eastern China under climate change. Firstly, the BIOME4 was validated according to the climatevegetation relationships in China. Kappa statistics showed that the validated BIOME4 was able to capture the geographical patterns of vegetation more accurately. Kappa values of tropical evergreen forest, tropical deciduous forest, warm mixed forest, temperate deciduous forest, cool mixed forest, deciduous taiga and temperate grassland are at good and very good level.The simulation results of temperate conifer forest and cool conifer forest are at poor level. The validated BIOME4 was used to predict the distribution of biome of NorthSouth transect of eastern China under SRESA1B climate scenario produced by a regional circulation model, RegCM3. The simulation results showed obvious northward shifts of the tropical forest,warm temperate forest, cool mixed forest and taiga. In the future, the changed regions of biome distribution are pointed, i.e., coastal areas of Hainan, the junction area of the torrid and subtropical zone, most area of northern subtropical and temperate zone, most area of cool temperate and cold temperate zone. In the future, area of tropical biomes, warm mixed forest, cool mixed forest will increase 1167 6×105, 5004 8×105 and 6110 0×105 km2, respectively; The area of temperate deciduous forest, temperate grassland and taiga will decrease 2089 0×105, 2162 8×105 and 2517 0×105 km2, respectively; temperate conifer forest will disappear.
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DONG Zhuoyao1, OUYANG Yan1*, LI Hang1, WANG Lei2, ZHAO Dehua1, AN Shuqing1, LIU Shirong3.
Modeling the biome of NorthSouth transect of eastern China in the future using BIOME4 model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2011, 35(03): 4 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.jssn.1000-2006.2011.03.005
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