Impact of climate change on potential distribution range and spatial pattern of Phoebe chekiangensis

WU Xiankun, NAN Chenhui, TANG Gengguo, LI Yao, MAO Lijun, ZHANG Zhicheng

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2016, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (06) : 85-91.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2016, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (06) : 85-91. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2016.06.013

Impact of climate change on potential distribution range and spatial pattern of Phoebe chekiangensis

  • WU Xiankun1,2, NAN Chenhui2, TANG Gengguo1*, LI Yao1, MAO Lijun1,2, ZHANG Zhicheng3
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Abstract

The impact of climate change on species distribution is one of the hot spots in rare and endangered species protection research. Based on Maxent model, this article predicted the potential distribution of Phoebe chekiangensis and analyzed its distribution pattern in four historical periods, e.g. last glacial maximum(LGM,21 ka BP), mid-Holocene(6 ka,BP), present and 2070. And, it was also estimated that the influence of different climate factors to the potential geographic distribution of the species. The results showed that the high accuracy of Maxent model for predicting the current potential distribution, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve(AUC values)was 0.996. The region with high suitability includes the high altitude areas Mt. Wuyi and Mt. Xianxialing at the junction of Zhejiang and Fujian Province, Mt. Gongdong and Mt. Yandang at the southeast of Zhejiang Province. The region with moderate suitability includes the low altitude hilly areas in Mt. Mufu, Mt.Luoxiao, Mt.Huaiyu, Mt.Wuyi, Mt.Huangshan, Mt.Tianmu, Mt.Kuaiji, Mt.Yandang and Mt.Gongdong, e.g. During the LGM, the potential distribution region of P. chekiangensis located at the East China Sea continental shelf. In the mid-Holocene, the potential distribution region with very high suitability became similar to that of the present but more larger area, and extended to low altitude areas. P. chekiangensis have the tendency to expand its distribution to northward and eastward under 2070 climate condition. Jackknife test showed the main factors which effected the potential distribution of P. chekiangensis were precipitation of driest quarter, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter.

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WU Xiankun, NAN Chenhui, TANG Gengguo, LI Yao, MAO Lijun, ZHANG Zhicheng. Impact of climate change on potential distribution range and spatial pattern of Phoebe chekiangensis[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2016, 40(06): 85-91 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2016.06.013

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